Since 14/11, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below 100,000 USD per unit. At one point, its market price dropped to nearly 94,000 USD before improving slightly to the 95,000 USD range, where it has remained stable. This marks its lowest price since early May, more than six months ago.

This month, the world's largest cryptocurrency has decreased by over 9%, falling below the crucial 100,000 USD support level. This weakening trend has spread across the market, pulling down major tokens like Ether, Solana, and Dogecoin by 11-20%. Even payment-focused tokens such as XRP have seen a drop of more than 7%.

Market sentiment is weakening, despite the US dollar strength index (DXY) stalling and losing momentum after encountering resistance above the 100 mark earlier this month. Typically, a weaker DXY benefits Bitcoin, the broader crypto market, and precious metals.

However, while BTC continues to struggle, precious metals have seen a strong recovery. Gold and silver prices have increased by 4% and 9% respectively this month. Less prominent precious metals like palladium and platinum have also recorded gains above 1%.

According to Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at market research firm Amberdata, most positive news had already been priced in, making BTC vulnerable to negative factors. After the US government avoided a shutdown, risk assets declined because all "good news" factors, such as the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates or US-China trade cooperation, were exhausted.

"Bitcoin traders had previously taken very optimistic positions, expecting strong fundamentals to support a year-end rally. But now these positions are being 'dumped' because the market is overbought, and few are accumulating further," he added.

Similarly, the analysis team at Bitfinex exchange believes the current decline primarily stems from a lack of clarity regarding key economic conditions and the future direction of monetary policy. This data deficit resulted from the US government shutdown, which lasted from 1/10 to 14/11, halting the release of inflation and employment reports.

According to the analysis team, the market correction is a consequence of this information gap and political instability. "Crucial economic data is still missing, leaving the market and the Fed without sufficient basis for direction, forcing investors to observe from the sidelines," the analysis team stated.

However, the budget spending package passed to end the government shutdown only provides funding to maintain operations until 30/1 next year, continuing to pressure market sentiment. "This temporary budget spending package does not resolve uncertainty; it merely pushes the problem further down the road," Bitfinex experts added.

Crypto expert Noelle Acheson stated that the recent correction was necessary after months of the market trading within a narrow range and failing to sustain a breakout above 120,000 USD. According to her, investors need to go through this "wash out" phase before they can "breathe a sigh of relief."

The main driver for BTC remains macro liquidity. She anticipates the Fed's next interest rate cut, possibly in late Q1/2026, will include other easing measures or "liquidity injections." This is expected to restore optimism for risk assets, including BTC.

Bieu trung cua Bitcoin dat canh cac to dola My. Anh: Reuters

However, experts from Amberdata market research firm remain concerned about deeper systemic risks weighing on the crypto market. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives, highlighted the risk of a credit freeze as a major concern for Digital Asset Companies (DATs).

These organizations have been a significant source of buying pressure for cryptocurrencies over the past year, heavily relying on leverage to acquire tokens, often through convertible bonds and debt issuance. However, DATs are not the only group competing for capital. Governments and AI-related projects are also increasing demand for the same limited pool of credit.

Magadini noted that if the credit market tightens or freezes, these companies could face difficulties refinancing, forcing them to sell digital assets to repay debts. Such a sell-off could trigger a chain reaction, compelling other DATs to sell as well.

"While this risk is less severe for quality assets like BTC, it increases significantly for companies that have recently bought highly volatile altcoins at peak prices," Magadini observed.

Tieu Gu (according to CoinDesk)