The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued this warning as the World Health Organization (WHO) released its latest figures. As of 9/6, the affected region has recorded 397 infections and 65 deaths since the outbreak began in February this year.

Due to the severe nature of the outbreak, the WHO declared a global health emergency in mid-May.

CDC US experts developed this warning model based on a worst-case scenario: limited vaccine and treatment supplies, and healthcare systems only isolating 20% of patients. Even in a more optimistic scenario with an isolation rate of 70%, the model still indicates a 20% risk of cases exceeding 10,000.

The agency stressed that if countries do not quickly implement large-scale and sustainable public health measures, the current outbreak could escalate as severely as the 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in West Africa, which claimed over 11,000 lives among 28,000 cases.

While presenting alarming figures, US health officials clarified that this is a planning tool designed to prompt rapid action from countries, rather than an accurate forecast intended to cause panic.

Scientists currently face difficulties assessing the true scale of the outbreak due to an incomplete understanding of the Bundibugyo strain, uncontrolled isolation cases, and the inability of standard tests to detect this variant.

Controlling the source of infection is further complicated by the outbreak's epicenter in Congo’s Ituri province, a region experiencing armed conflict. The Bundibugyo variant typically spreads from fruit bats to humans, then intensifies through direct contact with bodily fluids, leading to rapid multi-organ failure in patients after an incubation period of two to 21 days.

Despite the tense situation in Africa, the US CDC assesses the risk of the virus entering and spreading widely in the US as very low. This is attributed to the robust public health system and stringent clinical infection control procedures. To date, the US has not recorded any domestic cases.

Authorities have only medically evacuated an American surgeon infected in Congo and their family to Germany for treatment. Additionally, another related doctor was transferred to the Czech Republic for close medical monitoring.

A woman cries as Red Cross workers carry the coffin of an Ebola victim out of a medical center in Rwampara, Democratic Republic of Congo, on 20/5. Photo: AP/Moses Sawasawa

In Vietnam, the Ministry of Health assesses the risk of Ebola entering the country as low because the virus only spreads through direct contact. However, the agency has issued warnings and proactively prepared response plans.

By Binh Minh (CNB News, ABC News)