Norway is currently leading Group I of the European World Cup qualifiers with 21 points. This gives them a three-point advantage over Italy and a significantly superior goal difference of +29 compared to Italy's +12.

To overturn this deficit, Italy faces an almost impossible challenge: they must defeat Norway by a 9-goal margin in their final home match on 16/11. The Norwegian computer center estimates their national team's direct qualification chances at 99,9%. This daunting task is made even more difficult given that Norway previously beat Italy 3-0 in the first leg. Italy's recent 2-0 victory over Moldova on 13/11, secured by late goals from Gianluca Mancini and Francesco Pio Esposito, only delayed Norway's inevitable qualification rather than altering the overall situation.

Italian players were not overly joyful after their 2-0 victory against Moldova in the World Cup qualifiers on 13/11. Photo: FI

In the World Cup qualification format, only the group leader earns a direct qualification spot, while the second-placed team must compete in playoffs. Goal difference serves as the primary tie-breaker if two teams finish with equal points.

Italian media briefly held onto hope on 13/11 when Norway was held to a draw by Estonia in the first half of their concurrent match. However, subsequent developments quickly shifted their tone. After Erling Haaland extended Norway's lead to 4-0, the Italian newspaper Gazzetta conceded defeat, reporting, "Norway has practically secured its position at the World Cup". Similarly, the prominent French sports newspaper L'Equipe also announced, "Norway will play in the World Cup".

Norway's last appearance at the World Cup was in 1998, where they reached the round of 1/8. Italy, a four-time champion, has notably missed the last two World Cups. In the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, Italy lost 0-1 on aggregate to Sweden in the playoff round. Four years later, they again failed to qualify, suffering a 0-1 defeat to North Macedonia in the playoff semi-finals.

Thanh Quy