Switzerland will hold a referendum on population limits on June 14. Under the proposal, if Switzerland's population surpasses 9,5 million, a milestone that could be reached by 2031, the government must implement measures to prevent the population from hitting 10 million, which could occur by 2042.

Upon reaching 10 million people, Bern would be compelled to terminate international treaties that promote population growth. This includes the free movement agreement with the European Union (EU), a prerequisite in Switzerland's complex network of treaties with Brussels that grants the country access to the European common market.

Referendums are a cornerstone of Swiss politics, where voters cast ballots four times a year on national and regional issues. Some observers suggest that if approved, this proposal would resemble a "Swiss Brexit", while businesses fear it would deal a severe blow to the economy.

A woman walks past a poster campaigning for a "yes" vote on the proposal to limit the population to 10 million in Zurich on May 28. Photo: AFP

Proponents of the population cap, led by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), argue that rapid population growth is straining local infrastructure, roads, and public transport. They also contend it is driving up rental prices and crime rates.

Conversely, companies and employers worry that the proposal's approval would restrict Switzerland's ability to access skilled labor and damage its relationship with the EU, the nation's largest export market.

"As a Swiss citizen, I am concerned for the future and prosperity of the country", said Martin von Moos, chief executive of the luxury hotel chain Belvoir in Ruschlikon and Sedartis in Thalwil, near Zurich.

"If we lose all our foreign staff, the hotel simply cannot operate", he added, noting that nearly one-half of his 115 employees are not Swiss.

Recent studies indicate that public opinion on the issue is balanced, with 47% supporting and 52% opposing the proposal in the latest poll.

Switzerland's population increased to 9,1 million by the end of 2025, up from 7,3 million in 2002, when the free movement agreement between Switzerland and the EU first took effect. Currently, foreigners constitute nearly 28% of the population.

"Switzerland is a small country with limited territory, yet it has had the highest population growth rate in recent years", stated SVP parliamentarian Yvan Pahud.

This vote is the latest evidence of right-wing parties capitalizing on public anxieties concerning immigration, housing, and public services. This trend has been observed in the United Kingdom's 2016 vote to leave the EU (Brexit) and the rise of parties like the National Rally in France or the AfD in Germany.

Many businesses have criticized the proposal, including major corporations such as Roche, Nestle, ABB, UBS, and Novartis, all of whom have spoken out against the proposed cap.

"We reject this idea", stated Roche. "Businesses depend on access to qualified workers, especially from the EU".

Molecular Partners, a biotechnology company based in Zurich, noted that recruiting suitable staff is already challenging. More than one-half of the company's 120 employees are foreign nationals.

"I think if we could only recruit Swiss personnel or only cooperate with Swiss companies, it would be a 'cold shower' that would halt all operations. We might be forced to move parts of our operations out of Switzerland", said Daniel Steiner, the company's leader.

Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at the Swiss Business Federation, characterized the population cap as a "demagogic attempt" to address complex issues with an oversimplified, artificial quota.

"It paints the illusion of a free lunch and will not solve our housing or traffic problems", Minsch said.

Like many European nations, Switzerland faces an aging population. According to the Swiss Statistics Office, by 2055, the proportion of Switzerland's population aged 20 to 64 will decrease from 60% to 56%. Meanwhile, the percentage of people over 65 will rise from 21% to 27%.

Opponents of the cap argue that many immigrants are entrepreneurs who have developed the Swiss economy. They cite renowned companies such as Nestle, Swatch, and ABB, which were partially or entirely founded by foreign nationals. A 2023 study by Avenir Suisse found that 39% of company founders in Switzerland are foreigners.

Claude Maurer, chief economist at the BAK Economics research institute, stated that if Bern abandons bilateral agreements, the size of the Swiss economy between 2028-2045 would be 7,1% lower than under a normal development scenario, equivalent to a loss of 685 billion Swiss francs (867 billion USD). Growth would slow, while inflation could lead to higher interest rates.

However, Thomas Matter, another SVP parliamentarian and a banking expert, dismissed these concerns as fear-mongering. According to Matter, only one in ten immigrants is a skilled worker sought after by the market, and GDP per capita growth has declined since immigration increased.

"We are not against immigration, but it must be moderate and controlled so that we attract the right people", he said. "Before, we had quality immigration, but now we have quantity immigration. Switzerland's area remains the same as in 1848, but more and more people are living in the same space".

Director Moos, who also chairs the Swiss Hotel Association, stated that some hotels might be forced to close, prices would rise, and non-European tourists would find it harder to visit Switzerland.

"We call this proposal a wolf in sheep's clothing. It is a simple message but hides serious consequences", he said.