The financial results of SpaceX and Tesla will be a test of whether Starlink's steady growth and profits from Tesla's automobiles are sufficient to generate capital for Elon Musk's ambitious artificial intelligence (AI) projects.
“Regarding the figures, investors will be more interested in Starlink's revenue growth than the number of rocket launches, along with the improvement in Tesla's automotive profit margins,” said Shawn Campbell, an advisor at Camelthorn Investments.
Last week, the UK-based bank Barclays suggested that SpaceX and Tesla might announce a merger before December of this year. However, neither Musk nor the two companies have officially endorsed the deal. Barclays believes it is highly probable that SpaceX would be the acquiring party, and the transaction would be conducted entirely through stock.
The bank estimated that Musk would hold approximately 37% of the shares and 56% of the voting rights in the new company. “SpaceX acquiring Tesla would be simpler, as it would be easier to manage the business operations in China,” Campbell stated.
Musk's vision for future transportation was highlighted last week when Tesla unveiled its new Roadster sports car at a SpaceX testing facility in Texas. The model, slated for production in 2028, is designed to launch and flip mid-air using rocket technology.
“Musk is envisioning the future of transportation by integrating automotive and rocket technology. At the very least, this is a clever way to make investors believe that a merger would yield technical efficiencies,” commented Bill Birmingham, head of research at REX Financial. He suggested that the timing of the launch, ahead of Tesla's annual general meeting (AGM), was not coincidental.
SpaceX merged with xAI, Musk's artificial intelligence company, in February, months before its initial public offering (IPO). Currently, both Tesla's and SpaceX's expenditures are directed toward one area: AI. However, the business segments of the two companies remain distinct: SpaceX generates revenue from rocket launches, the Starlink satellite internet network, and AI computing capabilities, while Tesla earns revenue from automobiles and energy storage.
SpaceX will release its financial report on 20/10. Investors will monitor whether the company's substantial expenditures on AI are generating revenue.
Data firm LSEG reported that SpaceX is projected to record 12,74 billion USD in revenue for Q3, with earnings per share at 0,14 USD. Previously, Q2 revenue reached 7,8 billion USD, with a net loss of 541 million USD and AI expenditures totaling 15,8 billion USD.
Evercore ISI forecasts that by the end of 2026, AI will contribute “the majority of growth momentum” for SpaceX. The firm also estimates SpaceX's capital investment will reach approximately 151 billion USD next year.
SpaceX stock closed the first trading day of the week at 1467,9 USD, higher than its IPO price of 135 USD, but still significantly below its record high after going public.
Meanwhile, Tesla is on track to report an increase in vehicle deliveries this year, for the first time since 2023. However, investors are more concerned with profitability and the company's bet on robotaxis.
Analysts forecast Tesla to report earnings per share of approximately 0,43 USD, a decrease compared to the same period last year. Revenue for the previous quarter could reach 27,8 billion USD. Tesla also delivered over 486.500 vehicles in Q3, surpassing analysts' forecasts.
The automaker stated that capital expenditure would exceed 25 billion USD this year. Its stock has declined by approximately 17% since the beginning of the year.
Nevertheless, Wall Street will continue to focus on robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot to assess the company's growth prospects. They believe these are high-margin product lines that could, in the long term, surpass the traditional automotive segment.
While Tesla's robotaxi segment and fleet are still small compared to competitor Waymo, the company plans to expand its robotaxi services in the coming years. To date, Tesla's valuation largely remains based on such long-term ambitions, rather than the automotive segment, which contributes the majority of the company's revenue.
Ha Thu (according to Reuters)
