Djokovic (right) congratulates Sinner after their semi-final match at Philippe Chatrier Court, Paris, France, on 6/6. Photo: ATP

*Djokovic - Sinner: 10 PM today, 11/7, on VnExpress.

When the Wimbledon draw was released two weeks ago, Sinner suggested his championship hopes hinged on a potential semi-final clash with Djokovic. Last month at Roland Garros, the Italian player defeated Djokovic in straight sets before losing to Alcaraz in the final.

History favors Djokovic, but recent form belongs to Sinner, who has won five of their last six matches, including four consecutively since the 2023 Davis Cup semi-final. A similar scenario is unfolding at the All England Club this week, with Alcaraz progressing smoothly while Sinner again faces one of the most accomplished players in history.

Djokovic hasn't beaten Sinner in almost two years, since the 2023 ATP Finals. This period also coincides with the Serbian player's absence from major titles. Sinner defeated Djokovic in the 2023 Australian Open semi-final, the Shanghai Masters 1000 final, and this year's Roland Garros semi-final.

Few players have consistently dominated Djokovic like Sinner. Although Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in two consecutive Wimbledon finals, he has lost five of their eight encounters. The question now is whether the 38-year-old Djokovic can find a solution to overcome Sinner.

"Actually, I haven't played badly in those recent losses. Sinner was simply better at crucial moments," Djokovic said about the upcoming Wimbledon semi-final.

Djokovic falls during his Wimbledon quarter-final match on Centre Court at the All England Club, London, England, on 9/7. Photo: Reuters

Djokovic has maintained a high level of play, delivering spectacular shots and pushing his younger opponent to the limit. In Paris last month, he played well, forcing Sinner into a tough match, with each set decided by a narrow margin. In their last three encounters, the two players have contested three tie-breaks.

Sinner remains in good form, but perhaps not as convincingly as at Roland Garros. He might have lost his Wimbledon quarter-final against Grigor Dimitrov if his opponent hadn't retired due to injury. In that match, Sinner also fell, resulting in an elbow injury. Despite this, the top seed dominated Ben Shelton in the semi-final, winning in straight sets.

However, neither Shelton nor Dimitrov provided the ultimate test for Sinner before facing Djokovic. Grass is not the Italian's strongest surface. While he has triumphed at major hard-court events, Sinner has never reached a Wimbledon final.

Djokovic thrives on the London grass, with seven Wimbledon titles – just one shy of Roger Federer's record. Apart from Federer, Djokovic is the only player to surpass 100 wins at Grand Slam grass-court tournaments. He has played in the last six finals and lost only 12 matches in two decades. On his preferred surface, Djokovic has defeated Sinner twice: in the 2022 quarter-final and the 2023 semi-final.

Djokovic consoles Sinner after their 2023 Wimbledon semi-final. Photo: Reuters

At Roland Garros, Djokovic adjusted his tactics against Sinner, shortening rallies, employing drop shots, and varying his ball placement. The Wimbledon grass may suit this strategy better, giving Djokovic an advantage. Over the past week, Djokovic's success rate at the net has been 67%, with at least 30 net approaches per match.

Disrupting Sinner's rhythm will be key for Djokovic today, as his usual baseline game is now one of his opponent's greatest strengths. "I played quite solidly in recent matches against Sinner, but it wasn't enough to win," Djokovic said.

Like Sinner, Djokovic fell during his quarter-final match against Flavio Cobolli and canceled his practice session on Thursday. However, this might be a precautionary measure before the big match. If both are at full strength, the odds still favor Sinner due to his youth, consistency, and confidence. Sinner has become quite familiar with Djokovic's game ahead of their 10th encounter. For Djokovic, completely changing his tactics and style of play at 38 is unlikely.

Vy Anh