Before the round of 16, PSG held the highest probability of winning at 20.6%. Man City followed closely at 20.4%, with Inter Milan at 12.4%.
However, upsets in the round of 16 saw Man City lose to Al Hilal after extra time and Inter Milan fall 0-2 to Fluminense. This shifted the odds, with Chelsea emerging as the new favorite at 26.8%, while PSG dropped to second at 24.9%.
Now, heading into the semifinals, Opta has recalculated its predictions. PSG has returned to the top spot with a 58.84% chance of reaching the final and a 39.33% chance of winning the tournament. Chelsea now holds an 80.51% chance of advancing to the final and a 33.27% chance of lifting the trophy.
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Opta's predictions for the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 semifinals. Image: Opta |
Opta's predictions for the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 semifinals. Image: Opta
Real Madrid, the most decorated club in Champions League history, has a 41.16% chance of defeating PSG in the semifinals and a 24.67% chance of ultimately winning the tournament.
Fluminense, currently ranked 158th, is the only remaining team outside the top 100. As a result, the Brazilian side is considered the underdog with a 14.59% chance of reaching the final and a mere 2.72% chance of becoming the FIFA Club World Cup champion.
Opta acknowledges: "The supercomputer is not perfect, and not every prediction is accurate. That is the beauty of sport; surprises can always happen. These predictions do not definitively state that the Brazilian club cannot win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, but rather suggest that this outcome is the least likely based on the data model."
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Kylian Mbappe scores during Real Madrid's 3-2 victory over Dortmund in the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 quarterfinals at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, USA on 9/7/2025. Image: AFP |
Kylian Mbappe scores during Real Madrid's 3-2 victory over Dortmund in the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 quarterfinals at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, USA on 9/7/2025. Image: AFP
The first semifinal between Chelsea and Fluminense will take place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey at 2 a.m. on 9/7, Hanoi time. The match will also feature a reunion between Fluminense's center-back Thiago Silva and his former club, Chelsea.
Silva played for Chelsea from 2020 to 2024, scoring 9 goals in 155 appearances. During his time there, he won three titles, including the Champions League, the UEFA Super Cup, and the FIFA Club World Cup.
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Malo Gusto and Cole Palmer celebrate a goal during Chelsea's 2-1 victory over Palmeiras in the FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinals at Lincoln Financial Field, Pennsylvania, USA on 4/7/2025. Image: Chelsea FC |
Malo Gusto and Cole Palmer celebrate a goal during Chelsea's 2-1 victory over Palmeiras in the FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinals at Lincoln Financial Field, Pennsylvania, USA on 4/7/2025. Image: Chelsea FC
The second semifinal between PSG and Real Madrid is scheduled for 2 a.m. on 10/7. This match will see Kylian Mbappe face his former club. The French forward began his professional career at Monaco before transferring to PSG in the summer of 2017. During his seven years with the Parisian club, he set the club's all-time scoring record with 256 goals and won 15 titles.
The two semifinal winners will compete for the championship at MetLife Stadium at 2 a.m. on 14/7, Hanoi time.
Hong Duy (according to Opta)
