Midfielder Nguyen Thai Son (red shirt) played in the 2-1 victory against Kyrgyzstan in the second group A match of the U23 Asian Cup 2026 finals, at King Abdullah Stadium in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 9/1/2026. *Photo: AFC

* Vietnam - Jordan: 23h30 monday, 12/1, on VnExpress.

With two consecutive wins against Jordan and Kyrgyzstan, Vietnam leads the group with 6 points. Meanwhile, a costly loss to Jordan has dropped Saudi Arabia to third place with 3 points, risking becoming the third host nation to exit the U23 Asian Cup group stage after Oman in 2013 and China in 2018. The remaining two teams, Jordan (3 points) and Kyrgyzstan (0 points), still have a chance to advance.

The U23 Asian Cup 2026 group stage regulations prioritize tie-breaking criteria in the following order: points, head-to-head goal difference among tied teams, overall group goal difference, and overall group goals scored. If only two teams are tied on points and meet in the final match, a penalty shootout will determine their ranking. This is followed by fair-play points based on cards received, and finally, a draw.

Vietnam holds a significant advantage heading into the final match on 12/1. Coach Kim Sang-sik's team needs only to avoid a loss against Saudi Arabia to secure the top spot in the group.

Should Vietnam lose to the host nation, two scenarios could unfold. First, the team would still advance if Jordan fails to defeat Kyrgyzstan. Second, if Jordan wins, the head-to-head goal difference among Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan will be considered, leading to several potential outcomes.

Vietnam previously defeated Jordan 2-0, and Jordan beat Saudi Arabia 3-2. In a mini-group created between these three teams, Vietnam currently leads with 3 points, level with Jordan, but with a superior goal difference (+2 compared to -1). Consequently, Vietnam would still lead even with a one-goal loss to Saudi Arabia and would secure second place if they lose by two goals.

Vietnam's elimination would occur if they lose to Saudi Arabia 0-3 or by a four-goal margin. With a 0-3 loss, Vietnam would have the same goal difference of -1 as Jordan but fewer goals scored (2 compared to 3). However, if they lose 2-5 or more, Vietnam would again have more goals scored. If Vietnam loses to Saudi Arabia 1-4, they would still advance, despite having a goal difference of -1 and scoring 3 goals, similar to Jordan. The tournament rules state that if more than two teams are tied on points, and after applying all direct head-to-head criteria (goal difference, goals scored), a smaller group of teams remains tied, all head-to-head criteria will be applied specifically to this group. Therefore, Vietnam would advance by virtue of their 2-0 victory over Jordan.

Vietnam midfielder Khuat Van Khang (number 8) played in the 0-2 loss to Saudi Arabia in the U23 Asian Cup 2022 quarter-finals in Uzbekistan. *Photo: Lam Thoa

Despite this, football holds many variables, and analyzing potential scenarios helps teams proactively prepare for unexpected developments. Vietnam holds a significant advantage, but caution is always essential. Khuat Van Khang and Nguyen Dinh Bac certainly remember the U20 Asian Cup 2023 finals, where their team won the first two matches but a single defeat in the final match, exactly as predicted, cost them a spot in the next round.

Beyond just advancing, coach Kim Sang-sik's team aims to progress as far as possible. Topping Group A would also allow them to avoid Japan, who have already secured first place in Group B, in the quarter-finals. The East Asian representative, despite using an U21 squad, convincingly defeated Syria 5-0 and UAE 3-0. These two teams will compete for second place in Group B, and facing either of them would certainly give Vietnam a higher chance of advancing.

The Vietnamese players are emphasizing caution while also brimming with confidence. After more than one year, this generation of players has matured significantly in terms of tactics and experience in overcoming difficult moments. The squad also welcomes back striker Nguyen Thanh Nhan after injury. "If we prepare thoroughly, any opponent will have to be wary of Vietnam", coach Kim stated after the victory against Kyrgyzstan.

Saudi Arabia midfielder Musab Al Juwayr (number 10) played in the 2-3 loss to Jordan in the second group A match of the U23 Asian Cup 2026. *Photo: AFC

For Saudi Arabia, pressure weighs heavily on coach Luigi Di Biagio's team. Matches against fellow West Asian teams are often unpredictable, but the loss to Jordan exposed the host's fragile defense when facing strong counter-attacking opponents. Vietnam possesses this quality, along with set-piece strengths from corner kicks.

"The biggest challenge now is facing a very strong Vietnam team", coach Di Biagio said. "Saudi Arabia must strive for a win. The players need to regain their confidence and unity, as they have shown throughout the one and a half years I have been working here."

Vietnam has never defeated Saudi Arabia at any level of men's football. The two national teams have met four times, with Saudi Arabia winning all four matches. At the U23 level, the two teams have clashed six times, with Vietnam drawing one and losing five. The only draw was a 1-1 result in the Olympic 2008 qualifiers in Hanoi, with Le Cong Vinh scoring the opening goal. Specifically in the U23 Asian Cup, the two teams have met only one time. In the 2022 tournament, Saudi Arabia won 2-0 in the quarter-finals before going on to win the championship. Vietnam was then coached by South Korean coach Gong Oh-kyun. At other age levels, the two teams met once in the U20 Asian Cup 2006 group stage, also resulting in a 2-0 victory for Saudi Arabia.

If all goes well, Vietnam could achieve a historic victory against Saudi Arabia, simultaneously breaking their streak of never having a perfect group stage record in the U23 Asian Cup.

Hieu Luong