South Korea's path to the World Cup knockout stage has become increasingly narrow, with their chances dwindling to a mere 33% following the conclusion of nine out of 12 group stage matches. The Taegeuk Warriors currently sit third in Group A with three points and a goal difference of -1, a position that initially offered a strong probability of progression.

A 0-1 defeat to South Africa placed the Korean side in a precarious position. Before the second round of matches, statistics indicated that a team with such a record had over 95% chance of advancing. Opta, a sports analytics company, had even given Hong Myung-bo's squad an 87% chance of reaching the next round just two days prior.

Son Heung-min (center) and teammates show disappointment after South Korea's 0-1 loss to South Africa in the final Group A match of World Cup 2026, at Monterrey stadium in Mexico, on 24/6. Photo: Reuters

However, these analytical systems overlooked a crucial factor: the final group stage matches were not played simultaneously. This scheduling gave teams competing later the advantage of knowing the exact results they needed to secure qualification.

This led to a series of teams playing defensively to secure points rather than pursuing wins. The 26/6 and 27/6 saw a total of four draws. Consequently, Paraguay and Sweden have already secured their spots among the top eight third-placed teams, while Iran also has a strong 84,4% chance of advancing.

The results from Groups A through I have pushed South Korea down to eighth among the third-placed teams. At this point, Hong Myung-bo's team's performance is better than Scotland and Uruguay, but worse than Iran. For South Korea to advance, two of the three third-placed teams in Groups J, K, and L must fail to meet their objectives in the final round. Iran, with three points and a zero goal difference, will be guaranteed a spot in the top eight third-placed teams if one of the following conditions favorable to South Korea occurs.

While Opta assesses South Korea's chances at 33%, this figure is likely much lower due to the strategic calculations of the teams playing last. In Group J, both Austria and Algeria face the risk of finishing third. The issue for South Korea is that these two teams will play each other on the morning of 28/6. Both have three points after two matches, and a draw would see them both advance to the next round.

Should this match produce a winner, South Korea's chances would improve if Algeria is the losing team, as the African representative has a goal difference of -2. In the other scenario, South Korea would need Austria to lose by at least two goals.

In Group L, Croatia is currently third with the exact same points and goal difference as South Korea. Hong Myung-bo's team needs the 2018 World Cup runner-up to lose to Ghana, a team that still harbors hopes of topping the group. However, a draw between Croatia and Ghana is also a likely outcome, which would allow both teams to advance. In that case, Ghana would finish second with five points, and Croatia would have four points.

In Group K, DR Congo and Uzbekistan will face off in the final round, with both needing a win to keep their qualification hopes alive. South Korea would benefit if this match concludes in a draw, or if Uzbekistan secures a victory by a margin of less than six goals.

Vy Anh