According to a report released today at the opening of the Two Sessions, China's defense budget for this year is projected to exceed 1.9 trillion yuan (276.8 billion USD), marking a 7% increase from last year's 1.8 trillion yuan (246 billion USD).

Experts suggest these funds will be allocated to increase soldier salaries, conduct training and exercises around Taiwan, enhance cyber warfare capabilities, and procure advanced weapons and equipment, among other initiatives.

This budget increase highlights China's ongoing effort to narrow the military spending gap with the United States, which allocated nearly 962 billion USD for defense in fiscal year 2026. The decision also underscores Beijing's policy of maintaining stability as it pursues an extensive anti-corruption campaign within its armed forces.

"China pursues an independent and self-reliant foreign policy. However, without superior military and technological capabilities, China's diplomatic stance would certainly face pressure, and even be dominated by certain countries, including the United States," said Song Zhongping, a military expert who frequently comments on defense issues for Chinese state media.

While China consistently increases its defense budget by 7-8% annually, its military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) remains modest. China's 2024 defense budget was equivalent to 1.7% of its GDP, significantly lower than the 3.4% for the United States and 7.1% for Russia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

"That figure is proportionate to China's economy and defense needs," stated Niklas Swanstrom, director of the Sweden-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

China asserts its defense policy aims to protect its territory, including Taiwan, an island it views as a breakaway province destined for reunification, preferably by peaceful means but without ruling out the use of force if necessary. China maintains only one overseas military base, a stark contrast to the hundreds of military facilities the United States operates globally.

Chinese UAVs during a military parade in Beijing in 9/2025. Photo: AP

The question of whether China could prevail in a conflict with the United States remains unresolved. While the Chinese navy possesses the largest number of warships globally, it still trails the US in total displacement, as well as the quantity of submarines and aircraft carriers.

"The US military remains the world's leading armed force, both in terms of equipment and real-world combat experience," commented James Char, an expert at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

According to Swanstrom, the US military benefits from a superior global logistics network, more advanced submarines, stealth technology, a larger nuclear arsenal, experienced personnel, and an extensive alliance network. Expert Song Zhongping also conceded that the Chinese navy cannot yet match the US in distant waters.

However, the balance would shift significantly if the US navy were to operate close to China's coast, particularly in a scenario involving support for Taiwan during a conflict.

"China has achieved an advantage in the Western Pacific region due to its geographical proximity, a massive conventional missile arsenal, and overwhelming local firepower. Most importantly, if a conflict were to erupt, neither side could achieve a meaningful victory. The horrific level of destruction, casualties, and the risk of nuclear escalation would be catastrophic for all parties," Swanstrom concluded.

Nguyen Tien (According to AFP, Xinhua, AP)