The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on 31/7/2024 that it had taken full control of Chasov Yar in Donetsk province. Media outlets linked to the Russian military reported that the 98th Guards Airborne Division spearheaded the operation, releasing videos of its members raising the Russian flag and the division's colors throughout the city.

Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Khortytsia tactical-strategic group of the Ukrainian army, denied that Russian forces had seized Chasov Yar. However, the Ukrainian military has not provided further updates on the situation in the area.

Located about 15 km west of the strategic city of Bakhmut, Chasov Yar has long been one of Ukraine's most fortified defensive positions in the Donbass. Situated over 200 m above the surrounding plains, it offers a commanding view and control of the battlefield.

Before Russia launched its special military operation in 2/2022, Chasov Yar served as a logistics and command center for Ukrainian forces in the Donbass. It also acted as a staging area and logistics hub for units defending Bakhmut during Russia's 10-month siege of the city.

After Bakhmut fell in 5/2023, Chasov Yar became Ukraine's main defensive position on this front. According to Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Musiienko, Chasov Yar is the "last stop" preventing Russian forces from advancing deeper into the remaining Ukrainian-held urban centers in Donetsk, including Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka, and Konstantinovka.

The offensive on Chasov Yar began around 4/2024. The complex terrain, the city's strong defenses, and heavy losses from previous frontal assaults on Ukrainian strongholds led Russia to adopt a strategy of encirclement, involving flanking maneuvers, cutting supply lines, and besieging enemy positions.

Location of Chasov Yar and other cities in Donetsk province. Graphics: RYV

Military experts believe that controlling Chasov Yar not only provides Russia with a battlefield advantage but also offers an opportunity to reshape the situation in the Donbass, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk provinces.

Chasov Yar's geographical location gives Russia a firepower advantage and threatens key Ukrainian supply routes.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that control of the city will bring neighboring urban areas like Kramatorsk and Slavyansk within effective artillery range, while directly threatening Konstantinovka, another important Ukrainian logistics hub in Donetsk.

In addition to artillery deployment, the Russian military can also use Chasov Yar's elevation to deploy ground reconnaissance units and drones to adjust artillery fire and designate targets for guided glide bombs.

"Chasov Yar is a strategic foothold for Ukraine. Russian control of this location not only weakens the enemy's defenses but also creates conditions for Moscow to expand its attacks deeper into Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk," military analyst Julian Ropcke told Germany's DW.

According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has made "significant tactical gains" in the Mykolaivka area, west of Chasov Yar, by taking advantage of the terrain and superior firepower.

The ruins of Chasov Yar in a photo released on 31/7. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense

Ukraine's logistics lines on the Donetsk front will be severed if they lose Chasov Yar, as it connects road and rail routes to Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, and Konstantinovka.

Deep State, an intelligence analysis group linked to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, acknowledged that most of Chasov Yar has fallen, putting supply routes from Konstantinovka to other cities in Donetsk "under serious threat."

"The loss of the strategic stronghold of Chasov Yar is a major blow to Ukraine's logistics system. Kyiv will have to restructure its entire supply chain, while Moscow can use these routes to consolidate its position," said Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Capturing Chasov Yar also provides Russia with a springboard to reach the last strategic cities held by Ukraine in Donetsk, especially Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, considered the "heart" of Ukraine's defense lines in the region.

This means Russia can move closer to its goal of controlling the entire Donetsk province, one of the top priorities of its special military operation.

ISW statistics from 30/7 show that Russia is conducting simultaneous attacks in several areas around Chasov Yar to exploit its advantage. If Russia maintains pressure, Konstantinovka risks being surrounded on three sides, while Kramatorsk and Slavyansk also face threats from Russian artillery and infantry.

"Russia has achieved some tactical successes at Chasov Yar. If Ukraine cannot stabilize the situation, the risk of losing more major cities in Donetsk is very high," warned Musiienko.

In addition to the military advantages, controlling Chasov Yar also strengthens Russia's position in negotiations with Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has stated that Russia wants to achieve its goals in Ukraine peacefully, but experts suggest that controlling strategic points like Chasov Yar allows Moscow to negotiate from a stronger position.

Ukrainian self-propelled artillery fires towards Russian positions near Chasov Yar on 22/7. Photo: AP

"Every Russian military advance, like at Chasov Yar, increases pressure on Ukraine and the West in negotiations. Russia is trying to consolidate its position before reaching an agreement," said Fiona Hill, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution.

Russia's Vzglyad newspaper reported that the Russian military has not fully controlled some areas south and west of Chasov Yar, but most of the city has fallen, making it difficult for Ukraine to mount an effective counteroffensive.

According to Kofman, the capture of Chasov Yar demonstrates Russia's tactical adaptability after heavy losses in the early stages of the conflict. "The Russian military has learned to use its superior firepower and encirclement tactics to weaken the enemy before launching direct attacks. Chasov Yar is a prime example of this tactic," he said.

However, some Western experts believe that success at Chasov Yar is not enough for Russia to control all of Donetsk in the short term. "Chasov Yar is an important tactical victory, but Russia will need more resources to maintain pressure on major cities like Kramatorsk and Slavyansk," Forbes contributor David Axe wrote.

Phong Lam (According to Forbes, ISW, DW)