Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) and a leading US financial analyst, suggests that the "Epic Fury" military campaign—a large-scale joint operation with Israel targeting Iran—carries substantial costs for the United States.

Smetters is renowned for developing a model that analyzes the financial and macroeconomic impacts of federal policy, widely adopted by organizations in Washington. His past roles include economist at the Congressional Budget Office and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Department of the Treasury.

Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) launched from a HIMARS rocket artillery system on the first day of the "Epic Fury" campaign on 28/2. *US Army*

According to Smetters, military expenditures for "Epic Fury" could range from 40 billion USD to 95 billion USD, depending on the scale and duration of the offensive. His model projects the most probable cost at 65 billion USD, covering direct military operations, weapon replacement, and equipment.

"If the war extends beyond two months, this figure will certainly rise", Smetters stated.

Beyond direct military spending, Smetters forecasts an additional 115 billion USD in economic losses for the US, with a broad range from 50 billion USD to 210 billion USD, depending on the evolving situation.

He highlighted a significant risk of costs escalating to the highest levels. These damages would stem from disrupted trade, volatile energy prices, and unstable financial markets, which are typical repercussions of prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

The US also faces a 179 billion USD expenditure related to reciprocal IEEPA taxes. A Supreme Court ruling deemed this tax unlawful, potentially obliging the US government to refund the entire amount to US businesses and taxpayers.

President Trump initiated the "Epic Fury" campaign on 28/2, collaborating with Israel to target and destroy Iran's cruise missile facilities, naval forces, and nuclear program, and assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at targets across the Middle East.

At least six US soldiers were killed in Iran's retaliatory strikes. President Trump indicated on 2/3 that the campaign might last four to five weeks, not ruling out the deployment of ground troops into Iran.

The prospect of a prolonged conflict substantially increases financial risks, leading Smetters' model to project a surge in costs after the two-month mark.

Protest against US attack on Iran in Seattle, Washington state, on 28/2. *AP*

Before the campaign, the US spent 630 million USD on troop deployment, primarily covering operational costs for dozens of warships and over 100 aircraft sent to the Middle East. Elaine McCusker, a former senior budget official at the US Department of Defense and currently with the American Enterprise Institute, confirmed this. This sum, while considerable, remained manageable within the Department of Defense's substantial 839 billion USD budget for the current year.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey revealed that 25% of Americans supported the airstrike campaign against Iran. Within the Republican Party, 25% of individuals also endorsed President Trump's use of force.

Amid divided public opinion and concerns from conservative politicians about public debt, the potential economic losses are likely to spark an intense debate over who will ultimately bear the costs of an open-ended conflict.

Smetters also offered a cautious perspective on war cost calculations, suggesting that current figures often overlook the inverse scenario.

"The issue is that we haven't accounted for the possibility that if Iran truly acquires nuclear weapons, the US might later face even greater military expenditures, potentially enormous costs to address the consequences if cities were attacked", he explained.

*Hong Hanh (Fortune)*