German economist and football forecaster Joachim Klement, widely known as the "World Cup oracle", issued an apology to the Netherlands national team after his prediction of their victory in the tournament proved incorrect. The Dutch squad was eliminated on 29/6 in the round of 16 following a penalty shootout loss to Morocco, despite a strong group stage performance where they topped Group F.

"To the Netherlands national team and all the people of this country, I apologize if I raised your hopes. But truthfully, you were unlucky, specifically Verbruggen's 'almost save' in the penalty shootout," Klement wrote on 30/6 on his personal blog.

Klement earned his moniker by accurately predicting the winners of the previous three World Cups: Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022. This year, his model had pointed to a Dutch triumph.

Netherlands players collapsed on the field after their defeat to Morocco on 29/6, ending their World Cup 2026 journey in the first knockout round. *Photo: AP*

Beyond the Netherlands, Klement's model also incorrectly predicted that Japan would eliminate Brazil in their head-to-head match. However, Gabriel Martinelli's injury-time goal helped Brazil advance.

Despite the setback, Klement believes Dutch fans should be proud of their team, and he personally remains confident that they are capable of winning one major title, possibly at Euro 2028. He emphasized the inherent unpredictability of knockout matches, especially those decided by a penalty shootout. "I am not Dutch, but I also feel proud of your team. Perhaps I cannot say the same about my own national team," Klement wrote, seemingly alluding to the German national team also being eliminated in the round of 16 after losing to Paraguay in a penalty shootout.

Klement initially developed his predictive model to demonstrate the impossibility of forecasting a champion based on real data. However, he was surprised when the model yielded accurate results upon its first application for the 2014 World Cup. The model relies on several key variables: each nation's GDP per capita (a factor directly influencing sports infrastructure and population size), football's societal standing, the national team's world ranking, and an element of luck.

German economist Joachim Klement. *Photo: Substack/Klement on Investing*

Klement said his email inbox was flooded yesterday with messages mocking his string of incorrect predictions, with some questioning whether he would abandon his model. He responded lightheartedly: "Are you kidding? I am a professional economist and investment strategist. In investing, we often get things wrong. People say that to make money, you only need to be right 6 out of 11 times. I have been right three out of four times, so rest assured that in four years, I will make new predictions."

Thanh Danh (Source: Guardian, Klement on Investing)