A dramatic and unprecedented conclusion to the Premier League season could see Arsenal and Manchester City battle it out in a playoff match to decide the title. This rare eventuality would only occur if both teams are level on points, goal difference, and other tie-breaking criteria at the end of the season. Premier League regulations state that the champion is first determined by points, then goal difference, and finally other metrics. If all remain equal, a playoff at a neutral venue becomes necessary.

For this playoff scenario to unfold, specific conditions must be met, starting with the pivotal match at Etihad on sunday, 19/4. This fixture would need to end in a 1-1 draw, ensuring their head-to-head record remains balanced, following their 1-1 draw at Emirates stadium in the first phase. Furthermore, Arsenal, currently leading with 70 points, 6 points ahead of Man City but having played one more match, would need to drop points in at least one more of their final 5 rounds. Concurrently, Man City would have to win their rescheduled match to draw level on both points and goal difference.

Erling Haaland scored the opening goal in Man City's 1-1 draw with Arsenal in Premier League matchweek 5 at Emirates stadium, London, England on 22/9/2025. Photo: Reuters

Currently, Arsenal holds a slight edge in tie-breaking criteria, having scored 62 goals and conceded 24, resulting in a goal difference of +38. Man City has scored 63 goals and conceded 28, with a goal difference of +35. This advantage, however, could reverse if the "Gunners" suffer a defeat at Etihad.

The remaining schedule for both teams presents differing challenges. Arsenal's fixtures are considered relatively easy, as they face opponents primarily from the bottom half of the table: Newcastle, Fulham, West Ham, Burnley, and Crystal Palace. Mikel Arteta's squad defeated all five of these teams in the first phase. In contrast, Man City faces a more demanding run, with matches against Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, and a crucial clash with Aston Villa, a team actively competing for a European cup spot.

Opta's supercomputer forecasts significant shifts in the title race depending on the Etihad match outcome. An Arsenal victory would boost their title probability to 98%, leaving Man City with just 2%. This result would give Arsenal a 9-point lead with 6 rounds left, requiring them to secure a maximum of 10 points from their final 5 matches to win their first title since the 2003-2004 season.

Should the match end in a draw, Opta projects Arsenal's title chances at 89% versus Man City's 11%. This outcome would allow the London team to maintain their 6-point lead and overcome their toughest remaining fixture. Conversely, a Man City win would intensify the race, narrowing the gap to three points with Pep Guardiola's team holding a game in hand. Despite this, Opta still favors Arsenal as the stronger contender, assigning them a 69% chance of winning the title compared to Man City's 31%.

Arsenal's perceived easier schedule in the closing phase is a key factor in their favor, as it provides opportunities to improve their goal difference. This metric could prove decisive if both teams finish level on points. Regardless of the result, the Etihad match is poised to be a pivotal turning point of the season, potentially leading to an unprecedented conclusion in Premier League history.

Hong Duy (according to Daily Mail)