On 11/3, Iran's Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali announced that the national team would not participate in the World Cup 2026, following US and Israel airstrikes that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, according to FIFA regulations, a team that has qualified but unilaterally withdraws is a rare action and may face disciplinary action.

According to the British newspaper Guardian, FIFA statutes do not permit member federations to arbitrarily withdraw from official tournaments. If a team refuses to participate in the World Cup after qualifying, the case will be referred to FIFA's disciplinary committee for review of sanctions.

Iran's national flag at the World Cup 2026 draw ceremony at Kennedy Center, Washington D.C., US, on 5/12/2025. Photo: Reuters

Disciplinary measures may include fines, mandatory reimbursement of all support funds, and even bans from future FIFA tournaments. This means Iran faces the risk of not participating in the World Cup 2030 qualifiers.

The World Cup rarely sees a team withdraw after the group stage draw. The last time this occurred was in 1950, when France and India did not participate due to high travel costs.

Under World Cup 2026 regulations, withdrawing from the tournament entails a significant financial penalty. Article 6 of the tournament regulations stipulates that any team withdrawing from the competition must pay a minimum fine of hundreds of thousands of US dollars, depending on when the decision is made, according to the Spanish newspaper AS.

If a team withdraws more than 30 days before the first final round match, the minimum fine is approximately 318,000 USD. If the decision is made within 30 days before the tournament begins, the fine will increase to approximately 635,000 USD.

In addition to fines, the national football federation must reimburse all sponsorship funds FIFA provided for tournament preparation. These support funds include team preparation costs, travel expenses, and sponsorship related to organizational work.

According to Times of India, FIFA typically provides approximately 1,5 million USD for each team's preparation process and an additional 10,5 million USD for tournament participation fees. If Iran must reimburse all these amounts, the total could be around 12 million USD, not including additional fines.

Some sources also suggest that the total financial loss could amount to millions of US dollars after combining fines and reimbursement costs. According to Mashable India, the final figure will be determined by FIFA's Disciplinary Committee based on the timing of the withdrawal and related factors.

FIFA will also need to find a replacement team from the list of 48 teams. According to Diario AS, the World Cup spot will likely still belong to the Asian region. The two most frequently mentioned candidates are Iraq and UAE. Iraq is currently in the intercontinental play-off round to compete for a World Cup spot, while UAE was eliminated in the final stage of the Asian qualifiers.

If Iraq does not qualify through the intercontinental play-off round, this team is considered the strongest candidate to replace Iran because it advanced furthest in the qualifiers without securing a direct spot. Another scenario is Iraq receiving a direct spot in the finals without playing, with UAE taking its place in the play-off round.

The World Cup 2026 will take place from 11/6 to 19/7 in three co-host nations: the US, Mexico, and Canada. This will also be the first World Cup to feature 48 participating teams. Iran was initially placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. All three of its group stage matches were scheduled to be held in the US.

Compiled by Hoang An