Liverpool has been the Premier League's biggest spender this summer, splashing over 400 million USD on goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, defenders Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong, attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz, and forward Hugo Ekitike. The Anfield club is also pursuing Newcastle's striker Alexander Isak, despite a reported asking price of around 200 million USD.
Following this busy summer transfer window, Arne Slot's team has a 28.5% chance of retaining the title, the highest among the 20 competing clubs, according to Opta. The supercomputer also predicts a 19.5% chance of Liverpool finishing second and a 14.2% chance of finishing third.
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Liverpool lifts the Premier League trophy in the 2024-2025 season. Photo: PL |
Liverpool lifts the Premier League trophy in the 2024-2025 season. Photo: PL
Trailing Liverpool are Arsenal with a 24.2% chance of winning the title and Man City with 18.8%. Opta predicts a three-horse race, with Liverpool, Arsenal, and Man City having significantly higher chances of winning than the other clubs. The next closest contenders are Chelsea at 8.4%, followed by Aston Villa and Newcastle, both at 5.1%.
The top three teams' chances of securing a top-four finish are as follows: Liverpool 72.7%, Arsenal 68.5%, and Man City 62%. These figures would increase if the Premier League retains its fifth Champions League spot.
Opta predicts Chelsea will finish fourth (10.9%), while Aston Villa is projected to finish fifth with 38.1%. Newcastle, Crystal Palace, and Brighton follow closely behind.
Last season's disappointments, Man Utd (15th) and Tottenham (17th), continue to be rated poorly. Despite not competing in European competitions and being able to focus solely on the Premier League, Man Utd is predicted to finish 12th. Tottenham, under new manager Thomas Frank, is expected to fare even worse, finishing 14th.
Specifically, Man Utd has a 10.7% chance of finishing in the top 5, 20.5% for the top 7, and 40.3% for the top half of the table. They also have an 11.1% chance of being relegated. Tottenham's chances are 9.2% for the top 5, 35.9% for the top 10, and a 13.7% risk of relegation.
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Maguire and Shaw challenge Solanke for a header during Man Utd's 0-1 loss to Tottenham in the Europa League final at San Mames Stadium, Bilbao, Spain on 21/5. Photo: AP |
Maguire and Shaw challenge Solanke for a header during Man Utd's 0-1 loss to Tottenham in the Europa League final at San Mames Stadium, Bilbao, Spain on 21/5. Photo: AP
At the bottom of the table, newcomer Sunderland has the highest relegation risk at 66.4%, with a 34.1% chance of finishing last. The other two newly promoted teams, Leeds and Burnley, have relegation risks of 48% and 45.9%, respectively.
Opta's supercomputer generates its predictions based on tens of thousands of simulated seasons, using modern statistical probability models. These predictions are built from a vast database of match results over many seasons, team form, individual player performance, and technical indicators like expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA).
The supercomputer calculates each team's strength based on their current squad, new signings, injured or suspended players. The entire season's schedule, including home and away advantages and direct opponents, is also factored into the model.
Hong Duy (Daily Mail)
