Spain's 1-0 victory against Portugal propelled them into the quarterfinals and increased their championship probability to 25,2%, according to a statistical model developed by Gato Mestre and economist Bruno Imaizumi. This figure is just enough to overtake France, which previously led the prediction chart with 25%. Based on the bracket, if both teams win their quarterfinal matches, France and Spain will face each other in the semifinals.

Defender Pau Cubarsi (white) marks Cristiano Ronaldo during the Spain versus Portugal round of 16 match at the 2026 World Cup in Dallas, Texas, US, on 6/7. *Photo: AP*

In the quarterfinals, France will play Morocco, while Spain will face Belgium. Belgium recently eliminated host US and is estimated to have a 6,8% chance of winning the tournament. Argentina stands third with 14% before their round of 16 match against Egypt. England ranks fourth with 10,8% and will meet Norway in the quarterfinals.

According to the latest forecast table, Morocco has a 5% chance of winning the title, ranking above Switzerland (3,9%), Colombia (2,6%), and Egypt (0,8%).

At the 2026 World Cup, Spain is the only team to maintain a clean sheet throughout the tournament. After five matches, La Roja ranks second in the competition for shots on goal, third in expected goals (xG), and has forced opponents into the most turnovers.

The Gato Mestre model updates after each round, based on the performance results of 48 teams from the qualifiers to the World Cup. Instead of providing fixed predictions, the system continuously adjusts probabilities according to the actual developments of the tournament.

Bruno Imaizumi stated that the model uses extensive data to simulate each match. The most important factors include: expected goals, FIFA ranking, squad value based on Transfermarkt data, and past World Cup performance. These parameters reflect both the current form and competitive experience of each national team.

Bruno Imaizumi is a Brazilian economist specializing in statistics, data science, and predictive modeling. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and completed a postgraduate program in Data Science at the Sao Paulo School of Economics. He currently works at Grupo Globo, where he is responsible for statistical models and sports data analysis. Imaizumi previously shared that his algorithm has consistently outperformed Grupo Globo's commentators and hosts for six consecutive years in predicting match results in the Brazilian National Championship.

Vy Anh