Before the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells in early March, Alcaraz held a significant 3,150-point lead over Sinner in the ATP rankings. However, Sinner has since turned the tide ahead of the clay court season. By winning the Miami Open in late March, the Italian player narrowed the gap with the world number one to 1,190 points.

Sinner (left) and Alcaraz after the 2025 Roland Garros final on Philippe Chatrier court, Paris, France last June. Photo: Reuters

Sinner did not have any points to defend at Indian Wells or Miami last month, while Alcaraz had to defend 410 points. This initial difference was not the primary factor; subsequent match results proved decisive in shifting the momentum.

Alcaraz exited the Indian Wells semifinals after losing to Daniil Medvedev and was eliminated in the third round of Miami by Sebastian Korda, creating a clear opportunity for his rival. Sinner fully capitalized, earning an additional 2,000 points thanks to his strong performance in March.

Sinner currently boasts a 19-two win-loss record this season and achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first player in history to complete the "Sunshine Double" (winning both Indian Wells and Miami) without dropping a single set.

The pressure now rests on world number one Alcaraz, who must defend 4,300 points in the upcoming European clay court season. Last year, the Spanish player won the Monte-Carlo Masters, Rome Masters, and Roland Garros, in addition to reaching the Barcelona Open final.

In contrast, Sinner only needs to defend 1,950 points and has no points to defend until the Rome tournament in May. Last year, the 24-year-old player faced a three-month ban for a positive substance test, missing four Masters tournaments: Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, and Madrid Open.

Alcaraz is currently in his 65th week as world number one, just one week shy of matching Sinner's 66-week record. Despite this, the 22-year-old faces considerable pressure from Sinner, who enters the clay court season in a favorable position to compete for and reclaim the world number one spot.

Vy Anh