The 0-0 draw against Singapore in the third round yesterday saw Vietnam drop to third in Group A. The team has 4 points, two behind Indonesia and three behind Singapore. Cambodia and Timor Leste, with no points, are at the bottom and have been eliminated.

Beyond points, the second tie-breaking criterion is the head-to-head record between teams, starting with goal difference and then goals scored. If teams remain tied, further criteria include overall group goal difference, total goals scored, a penalty shootout if the two involved teams meet in the final round, fair-play points (based on cards), and ultimately, a drawing of lots.

Vietnamese striker Nguyen Dinh Bac (9) dribbles the ball during Vietnam's 0-0 draw with Singapore in the third match of Group A of the ASEAN Cup 2026, at My Dinh Stadium, Hanoi on 31/7. Photo: Hieu Luong

Group A has two rounds of matches remaining. On 3/8, Cambodia will play Timor Leste, and Vietnam will visit Indonesia. Four days later, Vietnam will host Cambodia, while Singapore and Indonesia will face off in a decisive match.

Coach Kim Sang-sik's team will secure advancement if they win their two remaining matches. Should Singapore defeat Indonesia in the final round, both teams would have 10 points, similar to Vietnam. In such a scenario, goal difference and goals scored would likely determine the group winner.

However, Indonesia is considered a formidable opponent. If Vietnam draws against them, two scenarios could unfold, provided Vietnam secures a win against Cambodia in the final round.

Firstly, Vietnam would advance to the semifinals as group runner-up if the match between Singapore and Indonesia produces a decisive winner. However, if that match ends in a draw, Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia would all finish with 8 points, necessitating a calculation of head-to-head goal difference. The two teams with the higher number of goals scored would then qualify, but Vietnam would not control its own fate in the final round. This specific situation could lead to Vietnam's elimination from the group stage, particularly if they draw 0-0 with Indonesia, and Indonesia subsequently draws with Singapore in a match with goals.

Consequently, Coach Kim Sang-sik's squad needs at least a scoring draw against Indonesia to maintain their advantage. In their five most recent encounters, Vietnam secured two wins and three losses. These results include: a 2-0 victory in the second leg of the AFF Cup 2022 semifinals, a 0-1 defeat in the Asian Cup 2023 group stage, 0-1 and 0-3 losses in the second round of World Cup 2026 qualifiers – Asia region, and a 1-0 win in the ASEAN Cup 2024 group stage.

The last time Vietnam was eliminated in the group stage was in 2012. Subsequently, the team reached the finals in three of the next six tournaments.

During the 2014-2024 period, Singapore reached the semifinals in 2021 and 2024. Indonesia advanced to the semifinals in 2016, 2021, and 2022.

Hieu Luong