Sinner holds the world number one position with 11,500 points, while Zverev is second with 9,690 points. From now until the season concludes, Sinner needs to defend 3,550 points, whereas Zverev only needs to defend 1,080 points. If the Italian player does not replicate his performance from last year, an opportunity will open for Zverev to climb to the top spot.

The ATP rankings calculate points based on results from the last 52 weeks. When a tournament is held again, the points earned at that event in the previous year expire and are replaced by the points from the current year. For example, Sinner previously received 1,000 points for winning the Paris Masters in 2025. If he only reaches the semifinals this year, he will gain 400 points but lose 600 points from his ranking total, despite a relatively deep run.

Sinner's challenge stems from his strong performance at the end of last season. He won two ATP 500 tournaments in Beijing and Vienna, earning 500 points from each. He then triumphed at the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals, receiving 1,000 and 1,500 points respectively. Additionally, Sinner must defend 50 points at the Shanghai Masters. To maintain his current total points, he needs to continue winning many tournaments in the coming months.

During the same period, Zverev only has to defend 100 points in Beijing, 50 in Shanghai, 330 in Vienna, 400 in Paris, and 200 at the ATP Finals. The most significant difference lies in the year-end tournament: Sinner was the champion last year, while Zverev was eliminated in the group stage.

Zverev with his US Open title after defeating Ben Shelton in the men's singles final on 13/9 in New York, USA. Photo: AP

The Shanghai Masters could be a pivotal event where the race for number one intensifies. Both players only earned 50 points there last year, leaving ample room for improvement. At the Paris Masters, Zverev must defend 400 points from his semifinal appearance last year, while Sinner defends 1,000 points from his championship win.

Sinner's ability to compete also depends on his recovery from a right knee injury. The 25-year-old has not played a match since winning Wimbledon in July and withdrew from the US Open for treatment. Before his break, he had won 44 matches and lost only three in 2026. If he finishes the season as world number one, it would mark his second time achieving this, following his success in 2024.

Zverev has a season record of 55 wins and 13 losses. The 29-year-old recently secured the US Open title, his second Grand Slam in three months after Roland Garros. His current form and the low number of points he needs to defend provide Zverev with an opportunity to finish the year as world number one for the first time. However, he still needs to accumulate sufficient points to overcome the current gap, regardless of Sinner's return to play.

Carlos Alcaraz is third with 5,560 points, significantly trailing the top two. The Spanish player recently returned after nearly 5 months out due to a wrist injury and lost to Ben Shelton in the US Open quarterfinals. Given the current points standings, the year-end world number one race is primarily a contest between Sinner and Zverev.

Vy Anh