Former US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet on 15/8 in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine conflict and bilateral relations.

Observers consider the meeting a turning point in US-Russia relations as the Ukraine conflict has lasted for over three years. They believe it will be a test to see whether the personal relationship, which Trump often describes as "good," with Putin will help the two leaders overcome disagreements or lead to an impasse.

During his first term, Trump met with Putin six times, mostly on the sidelines of international events. The most memorable meeting between the two leaders was the summit in Helsinki, Finland in July 2018. After a two-hour closed-door meeting, Trump and Putin expressed their desire to improve bilateral relations.

At the joint press conference afterward, Trump surprised many by expressing confidence in Russia's denial of interfering in the 2016 US election, contrary to the conclusions of the US intelligence community.

"I have great confidence in my intelligence people, but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today," Trump said, "He just said it’s not Russia. I will say this: I don’t see any reason why it would be".

Former US President Donald Trump outside the West Wing on 8/5. Photo: AP

Former US President Donald Trump outside the West Wing on 8/5. Photo: AP

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has actively promoted a roadmap to mend relations with Russia, which were frozen during the term of his predecessor Joe Biden due to the Ukraine conflict. Trump and Putin had a 90-minute phone call in February, expressing hope for rebuilding bilateral relations.

The meeting in Alaska will be Putin's first visit to the US outside the framework of the United Nations since 2007. "I view it as a sign of respect that he’s coming to our country, as opposed to us going to his country or some other country," Trump said.

Analysts also point out that by inviting the Russian leader to the US, Trump is giving Putin a "gift," helping him escape the international isolation established by former president Biden and European leaders.

"He wants to get along. He thinks he’s friends with Putin," said John R. Bolton, former national security advisor during Trump's first term.

With the meeting in Alaska, Trump believes he can persuade his Russian counterpart. "I’m going to meet with Putin and I’m going to tell him you’ve got to end this, you’ve got to end this war," he said.

However, many do not have high expectations for the upcoming meeting, as President Trump and his Russian counterpart still have disagreements over the Ukraine issue.

The former US president has recently complained several times about Russia's lack of cooperation in efforts to end the Ukraine conflict. He has long declared that he would quickly end the conflict, but efforts to promote negotiations have so far not yielded the expected results.

While still refraining from harshly criticizing Putin personally, Trump expressed "disappointment" and "unhappiness" with the Russian leader.

"Putin clearly crossed a line that Trump was prepared to tolerate. That explains why over the last four to six weeks you’ve seen comments more critical of the Russians. His friend wasn’t being helpful in getting the war over and he wasn’t getting a deal," Bolton said.

Despite publicly praising Trump's efforts to end the conflict, Putin has shown no signs of wanting to abandon his goals in Ukraine to make significant concessions at the Alaska meeting. A person familiar with recent US intelligence assessments said that "Putin believes Russia is winning, so he has no reason to compromise".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Putin "is definitely not prepared for a ceasefire or an end to the conflict". In a social media post, the Ukrainian president wrote that "Putin sees the meeting only as a personal victory and then continues to act as before, increasing pressure on Kyiv".

Former US President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference in Helsinki, Finland, in July 2018. Photo: AFP

Former US President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference in Helsinki, Finland, in July 2018. Photo: AFP

This raises the question of whether Trump will "sacrifice" his personal relationship with Putin to put pressure on Russia at the Alaska summit.

"I fully believe President Trump will go into the Putin meeting from a position of strength, and he’ll be concerned about the interests of Europe and the need to end this war with honor for Ukraine," Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said.

The former White House chief also warned this week that Russia would face "very serious consequences" if Putin was not sincere about ending the conflict. Trump did not specify what the consequences would be, but the White House had previously threatened economic sanctions or tariffs against Russia.

An unsuccessful meeting would not be what Trump wants. "Failed summits harm US national interests. If Trump returns from Alaska with nothing, he looks weak, and that's not good for America," Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama, wrote on social media.

It is too early to predict the outcome of the Alaska summit. However, the international community will be watching every move of the leaders of the two superpowers as they stand before an event that could reshape the global order.

"I think it’s going to be good, or it could be bad," Trump said on 11/8 about the upcoming summit.

Thuy Lam (According to AFP, CNN, AP, SMH)