Alberta to vote on secession from Canada

Residents of oil-rich Alberta province will hold a referendum on 19/10 to determine the level of support for secession from Canada.

The referendum includes ten questions, some related to immigration. However, the focus is on question ten, which asks: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada?" or whether the province should take the necessary legal steps towards a decisive vote on independence.

Elections Alberta stated that ballots for question ten will be counted first, with results expected to be announced in the early morning of 20/10. Polls indicate that less than one-quarter of residents in the province support independence.

However, attention is on voter turnout and the possibility of enthusiastic support for secessionists, coupled with complacency among those who favor Canada, leading to results contrary to polls.

The vote on 19/10 is consultative, serving as a legal preliminary step. If a majority of residents support secession, the provincial government will have the political basis to proceed with a subsequent binding referendum on formally separating from the Canadian federation.

Secession supporters participate in a rally at the provincial legislature grounds in Edmonton, Alberta on 17/10. Photo: AFP

Secession supporters participate in a rally at the provincial legislature grounds in Edmonton, Alberta on 17/10. Photo: AFP

Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that a victory for secessionists would cause dangerous instability amidst strained relations with the United States. "Do not let anyone say the outcome is predetermined. Voter turnout will be decisive", Carney stated at a rally on 15/10.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, described the referendum as a "dangerous gamble" given US President Donald Trump's imposition of harsh tariffs and threats to turn Canada into the 51st state. According to the Canadian Prime Minister, Trump's goal is to weaken the will of the Canadian people.

"Vote as if Canada's fate depends on it", Carney added.

Alberta holds the fourth largest oil reserves in the world. The secession movement is driven by dissatisfaction with the federal government's management of the oil and gas industry. Many Albertans are dissatisfied with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister Carney's predecessor, accusing the former leader of seeking to limit oil production to advance his climate agenda.

"If I had to point to who is responsible for the sentiment of secession, I would say it is Trudeau", Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said on the Canadaland podcast earlier this month.

Location of Alberta province in Canada. Graphic: Britannica

Location of Alberta province in Canada. Graphic: Britannica

At a secessionist rally in Edmonton on 17/10, Sandy Martel, 61, said that those involved in the oil and gas industry felt "robbed, deceived, and mistreated". "It is time to stand up and say stop", she said.

Premier Smith expressed her desire for Alberta to remain part of Canada, but still called for the referendum to address this divisive issue. If a majority of voters support secession, she pledged to advance a legally binding referendum on separating from Canada. If the federalist side wins, the issue of secession should be considered closed.

Experts worry that the vote's outcome could be disputed, regardless of the margin. "It is very likely that the referendum will lead a segment of the community to believe the vote was stolen or at least unfair", said Aengus Bridgman, an expert from McGill University, Canada.