The United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially departed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on 28/4, following a surprise announcement. UAE officials stated the decision "reflects a long-term strategic and economic vision, alongside a shift in the nation's energy development direction".

"Now is the time for us to focus our resources on priorities related to national interests," reported the WAM news agency.

This move suggests the UAE's departure from OPEC is not solely economic. Instead, the country appears to be actively disengaging from past constraints to forge its own standing in the Middle East, according to Kristin Diwan, a scholar at the US-based Arab Gulf States Institute.

"It is a declaration of UAE independence," Diwan observed. "Abu Dhabi no longer feels the need to align with institutions that do not suit its interests."

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei speaks in Abu Dhabi in 11/2019. Photo: AFP

Five nations—Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela—founded OPEC in 1960 to protect members' interests by coordinating oil production. OPEC currently has 12 members; the UAE joined the organization in 1967.

The UAE has hinted at leaving OPEC for years, particularly since disagreements with Saudi Arabia emerged over oil policy ahead of the OPEC+ summit in 11/2020. This rift became more evident during the subsequent meeting in 7/2021.

The UAE sought to increase its oil production, which OPEC had significantly cut during the Covid-19 pandemic, while Saudi Arabia advocated maintaining this policy to keep oil prices high. This difference stemmed from Saudi Arabia's need for high oil prices to secure revenue and fund costly infrastructure projects. The UAE, however, has a more diversified economy, less directly dependent on oil.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of research at Denmark-based GRM risk consultancy, said the UAE's argument is clear. The value of underground oil reserves may diminish in the next 5-10 years as the world accelerates its transition away from fossil fuels. Therefore, extracting oil earlier, selling more, and gaining market share while the market can still absorb it is a more logical choice.

Abu Dhabi has invested in recent years to boost its extraction capacity, aiming to increase production from approximately 3,4 million barrels a day to 5 million barrels a day by 2027, potentially even higher thereafter. By leaving OPEC, the UAE will no longer be bound by quotas, allowing greater flexibility to increase production if desired, especially once the Iran conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

For many years, the UAE largely remained in OPEC "out of deference to Saudi Arabia's leadership role", according to Diwan. However, the 28/4 announcement indicates "they will no longer automatically follow Riyadh's lead".

Representatives of OPEC member states at a press conference in Vienna, Austria, in 10/2022. Photo: AFP.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia were once the Arab world's most powerful allies, collaborating closely on issues ranging from the Yemen conflict to containing Iran's influence. However, strategic differences between them have become increasingly apparent. Saudi Arabia aspires to be the Arab region's political and economic center, a major power with influence spanning energy, finance, and diplomacy.

In contrast, the UAE pursues a more flexible, pragmatic, and globalized model. In many aspects, Abu Dhabi's vision no longer aligns with Riyadh's. The UAE has gradually developed its own strategies in Yemen, the civil war in Sudan, and the shaping of Gulf security architecture.

"What we are witnessing is an entirely new UAE," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent political scientist in the UAE. "In the future, Abu Dhabi will assert its role more strongly, both regionally and globally."

The current conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran further accelerates this divergence. Retaliatory missile and UAV attacks from Iran targeting Gulf infrastructure reveal that Arab bloc unity is not as strong as anticipated.

While Gulf nations considered how to confront Iran, Abu Dhabi severed many long-standing cultural and economic ties with Tehran. Saudi Arabia condemned Iran but supported diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan. The UAE chose to distance itself from this initiative, indicating Abu Dhabi does not fully agree with the softer approach some regional allies are pursuing.

"All Gulf countries have their own policies to contain Iran, but all such efforts have failed," Anwar Gargash, a senior UAE official, stated at a conference in Dubai on 27/4. "We have completely failed in our policies."

He believes the unity of Gulf countries "does not match the severity of the challenge" posed by the conflict. Meanwhile, the US security umbrella persists, but no longer offers the same absolute certainty as before.

"Countries in the region must adapt to a new reality where the US is no longer the unwavering support it once was," Diwan noted. "This forces each country to find its own path."

This explains why the UAE prioritizes practical bilateral relations, from the US to Israel, while becoming more disengaged from regional frameworks it deems ineffective.

In 9/2020, the UAE signed the Abraham Accords, brokered by US President Donald Trump, becoming the first Arab nation in the Middle East to normalize relations with Israel in over 25 years. Abu Dhabi views its relationship with Tel Aviv as leverage to increase regional influence and a special channel to access Washington.

"It is possible that the UAE's departure from OPEC is a tacit agreement between the country and the US and Israel, in which Abu Dhabi strikes a blow to OPEC to gain protection from Washington and Tel Aviv," Ellen Wald, an expert at the Atlantic Council, told Middle East Eye. "I would not be surprised if some defense agreement between the parties is announced in the near future."

Location of countries in the Middle East region. Graphic: Guardian

Officials and pro-government commentators in the UAE have recently discussed the next steps Abu Dhabi might take if it pursues a more independent direction. Some suggest the UAE is considering withdrawing from the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council, or the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which are regional multilateral frameworks.

Abdulla does not rule out the possibility of the UAE soon taking action regarding the Arab League, potentially freezing its membership, ceasing funding for the organization, or even withdrawing entirely.

"The UAE has finally acted, likely because of the Iran conflict. This moment presents an opportunity for pivotal decisions," observed Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, US.

Tareq al-Otaiba, a UAE researcher at the Belfer Center at Harvard University, predicted the country's withdrawal from OPEC in an essay published last week.

"The conflict has shown who true friends are," al-Otaiba wrote. "More importantly, how will the Arab world change when the UAE decides to break from the common path and pursue its own?"

Nhu Tam (According to Middle East Eye, Conversation, Reuters)