The feud between former President Donald Trump and Elon Musk shows no signs of abating. And no one knows how it might end, after Musk announced on 5/7 the formation of the America Party to challenge both Democrats and Republicans.

Many commentators believe Trump has the upper hand. But the fact that Musk, the world's richest person, was once willing to spend substantial sums to help Trump gain an advantage in the 2024 election and has now declared a new party, could be cause for concern for the former president and his Republican allies.

Trump called Musk's decision to form a third party "a ridiculous idea", arguing that such parties have never succeeded in the US, "because the system doesn't seem designed for it". However, his apprehension was apparent when he wrote that Musk's new party would only bring "total disruption and chaos".

Since his public dispute with Trump, Musk has posed two threats to the Republicans in future elections. First, he pledged to donate to the re-election campaign of Representative Thomas Massie, one of two Republicans who opposed the "One Big Beautiful Act" (OBBA). He also threatened to fund opponents of Republican representatives who voted in favor of the act.

Then, he announced the formation of the America Party, criticizing both Democrats and Republicans for increasing the government's budget deficit.

Elon Musk in Washington on 20/1. Photo: AP

Elon Musk in Washington on 20/1. Photo: AP

Lee Drutman, an analyst at Vox, believes the first threat is insignificant. He argues that Trump and his loyal Republicans will almost certainly receive support from the core Republican voters of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement in the 2026 midterm elections.

During the Republican primaries, Musk could fund challengers to unseat representatives who supported the OBBA, but it's unlikely to erode Trump's loyal base.

However, Musk's newly formed America Party could cause far more trouble for the Republicans when the midterm elections take place in 11/2026.

The midterm elections will be a contest for about 40 House seats and about 7 Senate seats. Drutman suggests that this makes any third-party efforts to attract voters potentially very impactful.

In recent years, the percentage of voters disillusioned with both parties has steadily increased. The proportion of Americans holding unfavorable views of both Democrats and Republicans was about 6% in 1994, but rose to 28% by 2013. In an NBC News poll released in April, about 38% of US adults said neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party is "fighting for them".

77% of respondents also agreed that "nothing will change in this country until we elect a new generation of leaders in Washington".

"All he needs to do is fund a few third-party 'spoiler' candidates in a few key states and districts. That way, Musk can exploit the inherent weakness of close elections", Drutman writes.

In crucial swing states, support between Democratic and Republican candidates for House and Senate seats is often very close. If Musk's America Party can attract a segment of voters from one major party, the other party will benefit and could potentially determine the outcome in both chambers of Congress.

In a social media post on 6/7, Musk said his party would focus on winning a few Senate and House seats to influence key votes on new legislation.

Musk argues that with the slim margins in both the House and Senate, if America Party candidates control a few seats, it would be enough to play a decisive role in contentious bills, ensuring "they serve the true desires of the people".

Observers believe that a third party backed by Musk will almost certainly attract voters "disillusioned" with both major parties. "He’ll give disillusioned voters a chance to stick it to the system, to say vote for us and you can make the whole establishment in Washington freak out", Drutman warns.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk (right) speaks on stage during a Donald Trump campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 5/10/2024. Photo: AFP

Tesla CEO Elon Musk (right) speaks on stage during a Donald Trump campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 5/10/2024. Photo: AFP

Many political strategists warn that Musk's party could cause the most damage to the Republicans, as many of Musk's supporters and those who favor his efforts to streamline government voted for Trump last year.

"Third parties often don't last long in American politics. But the America Party could split the Republican vote, leading to a Democrat-dominated House, at least in the short term", Dafydd Townley, an American political expert, told Newsweek.

Musk's move has attracted attention from existing third parties. Steven Nekhaila, chairman of the Libertarian National Committee, urged Musk to join their party instead of creating another one.

"Forming another third party would be a mistake. The Libertarian Party is the best-positioned party to become the opposition party", Nekhaila said.

Finance Minister Scott Bessent and former chief strategist Steve Bannon believe Musk's party will not pose a threat to the Trump administration or the Republicans.

However, some of Trump's allies have expressed concern about the third party. Laura Loomer, a prominent MAGA influencer and close Trump ally, warned that Musk's new party could cost the Republicans voters and divide the party's base.

"I predict Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Thomas Massie will join the new America Party to oppose President Trump", she wrote on social media.

Tucker Carlson is an isolationist commentator with significant influence in the MAGA movement, while Marjorie Taylor Greene is a Georgia representative. Both have recently expressed disagreement with US support for Israel and bombing Iran.

US President Donald Trump (left) and billionaire Elon Musk at the White House in Washington on 14/3. Photo: AFP

US President Donald Trump (left) and billionaire Elon Musk at the White House in Washington on 14/3. Photo: AFP

Some critics of the Trump administration have expressed enthusiasm for Musk's idea. Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's former communications director but now a vocal critic, said he wanted to meet with Musk to discuss the idea.

Tyler Palmer, a tech investor in the US, offered support. "Where do we send donations?", Palmer asked.

However, many experts acknowledge that third parties often do not perform well in US elections because the current electoral system favors the two main parties. Past third-party presidential candidates may have generated attention but haven't gone far.

Bernard Tamas, a professor of political science at Valdosta State University in Georgia, said Musk would face many obstacles to succeed with the new party, even with his vast wealth. "It's not like running a business, it's like a social movement. It has to be built from the ground up, where people are motivated and energized to fight", Tamas said.

While Musk seemed to help energize Trump voters in swing states last year, a competitive third party requires a much larger organization than Musk's current super political action committee.

Even with significant investment, he would be hard-pressed to build a system like the two main parties have. The question is whether Musk can do it, because money alone isn't enough", Tamas said.

Thuy Lam (According to Vox, NBC News, Newsweek)