French prime minister Francois Bayrou announced on 25/8 that he has requested president Emmanuel Macron to convene a parliamentary session on 8/9 for a confidence vote on his government. Bayrou hopes to secure parliamentary support for a controversial austerity budget proposal.

This move is seen as a high-stakes political gamble. Success would pave the way for the 2026 budget's implementation. Failure would force Bayrou's resignation, trigger a government collapse, and plunge French politics into further turmoil.

French prime minister Francois Bayrou (left) and president Emmanuel Macron speak in Paris on 13/7. Photo: AFP

French prime minister Francois Bayrou (left) and president Emmanuel Macron speak in Paris on 13/7. Photo: AFP

Observers predict a likely defeat for Bayrou, who needs at least 289 votes out of 577 members of parliament. The centrist ruling coalition holds only 210 seats, while the opposition, including the far-right National Rally (RN), the far-left LFI, and the Socialist Party (PS), holds over 320.

If the vote fails, Bayrou would be the 4th French prime minister to lose their position in 600 days, following Elisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, and Michel Barnier. The 2026 budget would also be scrapped. President Macron would then have to nominate a new prime minister, either from his current alliance or form a technocratic government.

"Macron's options were already limited when he chose Bayrou to replace Barnier", Paul Smith, head of Modern Languages at the University of Nottingham, UK, told France 24. "The question facing the French president is who has the ability to find a path that doesn't immediately antagonize far-right leader Marine Le Pen?".

Le Pen leads the RN, which holds 123 parliamentary seats. The RN initiated a no-confidence vote against former prime minister Barnier in late 2024 for using special powers to approve part of the 2025 budget. Lacking sufficient support, Barnier was ousted just three months after taking office, becoming the shortest-serving French prime minister since 1958.

"This cycle could continue", warned Andrew Smith, a historian of modern French history at Queen Mary University of London. "I think we'll have another fragmented government, just centrists trying to piece things together".

This prospect casts a shadow over the remainder of Macron's presidency, which is set to end in 5/2027. He is facing increasing calls for his own resignation.

"Macron is chaos. He must go", said Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the far-left LFI, adding that he intends to trigger a clause allowing parliament to impeach the president.

Macron has dismissed these calls, urging all parties to "seek compromise" before the 8/9 vote, asserting that it is "not an insurmountable challenge".

France has been in political turmoil since Macron's snap election in 6/2024 resulted in a hung parliament, with no party holding a majority.

While the French economy remains relatively strong, the government is struggling to control spending. In 2024, France's budget deficit reached 168.6 billion euros (196 billion USD), or 5.8% of GDP, exceeding the European Union (EU) limit of 3%. This situation, if prolonged, could weaken France's standing.

Bayrou's ambitious budget plan includes significant spending cuts and potential tax increases, aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.6% of GDP in 2026 and 2.8% in 2029. One particularly contentious proposal is to eliminate two of France's 11 annual public holidays.

The opposition criticizes Bayrou's measures as excessively harsh and socially unjust. Public opposition is also mounting, with unions calling for large-scale protests and strikes across the country on 10/9 and 18/9.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen gives an interview to TF1 television in Boulogne-Billancourt, a suburb of Paris, France, on 31/3. Photo: AFP

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen gives an interview to TF1 television in Boulogne-Billancourt, a suburb of Paris, France, on 31/3. Photo: AFP

Experts suggest Bayrou might still have a chance if he can persuade smaller parties to support the government. He began this effort on 1/9, despite the opposition claiming it's "too late".

"If you think I'm giving up a fight that I have been, am, and will continue to wage in the future, you are mistaken", Bayrou declared.

Former president Nicolas Sarkozy argues that France has "no other solution" to the current political crisis than a snap election. This is also what the opposition is hoping for.

"Jordan and I are calling for the rapid dissolution of parliament", RN leader Le Pen stated on 2/9, referring to her deputy Jordan Bardella, after an hour-long meeting with Bayrou at the prime minister's office.

"The sooner we return to the ballot box, the sooner France will have a spending budget", Bardella said.

Nhu Tam (According to France 24, euronews, AP)