A new wartime rhythm has emerged in Gulf countries. Businesses strive to adapt to disruptions, while residents gradually grow accustomed to attack warnings, even as their frequency has decreased.

The latest diplomatic efforts by US President Donald Trump with the Iranian government have yet to yield positive results. With thousands of US troops deployed to the region and Iran threatening new strikes on Gulf infrastructure, the Middle East faces the risk of a catastrophic conflict with severe economic consequences. "Deep mistrust among parties makes an immediate ceasefire almost impossible," said Professor Hamad Althunayyan of Kuwait University.

Smoke rises after a drone hit a fuel tank near Dubai Airport, UAE on 16/3. Photo: AP

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has suffered the most damage from Iran's missile and drone attacks, is skeptical about reaching an agreement with the current government in Tehran. UAE officials believe the goal should not merely be a ceasefire, but a "definitive resolution" to thoroughly address all threats posed by Iran, including its missile arsenal and proxy forces.

Noura Al Kaabi, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the UAE, stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacking civilian targets and blockading the Strait of Hormuz are actions "deserving of punishment". "They are holding the entire world hostage," she said. Ms. Kaabi emphasized that Iran remaining under IRGC control is unacceptable. "We want a normal neighbor. Do we want to raise a generation accustomed to being threatened by a neighbor? I do not think that is the reality we want to leave for future generations. We want assurances that this will never happen again," she added.

Alongside the UAE, Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain are adopting an increasingly hardline stance. While Saudi officials avoid public statements, diplomats from the country indicate they have made clear their view that the IRGC-dominated Iranian government poses an existential threat to the kingdom.

Location of the Strait of Hormuz and regional countries. Graphic: Guardian

However, not all Gulf nations share this perspective. Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr Albusaidi, believes Iran's attacks on cities like Dubai, Manama, and Doha are Tehran's "only rational option" in response to US and Israeli airstrike campaigns. Oman was the only one of the six Gulf countries this week to refuse to sign a joint statement condemning attacks by Iran and its proxy forces.

Qatar signed the statement but used distinctly more conciliatory language towards Tehran. Majed Al Ansari, advisor to Qatar's Prime Minister, said on 24/3 that Iran "will remain a neighbor", thus requiring ways to coexist and seek solutions through negotiation. "All Gulf countries agree that this war is not worth fighting. But the differences among them show that the strategic patience of some countries is diminishing by the minute. If Iran's aggressive actions escalate, these nations will have no choice but to confront the threat, neutralize it, and re-establish deterrence," Professor Althunayyan said.

Iran has threatened to attack power plants, desalination facilities, and oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf if the US targets its electricity generation infrastructure. Tehran also warned of large-scale retaliation against the Gulf if the US military, potentially with support from some regional countries, attempts to seize Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE claims sovereignty over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb, which Iran has controlled since 1971. The Pentagon is considering deploying approximately 10,000 more ground troops to the region, in addition to the 5,000 soldiers and marines already sent to the Gulf in recent days.

Light trail of a projectile in the sky over Dubai, UAE on 28/2. Photo: AP

"It is clear that this region is entering a volatile period. The current situation offers only two paths: either escalating military conflict as President Trump warned, or continuing difficult negotiations that are unlikely to yield expected results," said Sultan Mohammed Al Nuaimi, director of the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies in Abu Dhabi.

Despite US and Israeli assertions that they have destroyed most of Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, Tehran's attacks continue. On 26/3, debris from a missile interception killed two people in the UAE. After a month of conflict, at least 1,900 people have died in Iran. The country with the second-highest casualties is Lebanon, where at least 1,142 people have died due to Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah forces. More than 100 people have died in Israel, Iraq, and several Gulf nations. 13 US soldiers have died in connection with the conflict.

Military experts doubt Iran's ability to completely shut down the electricity and water systems of the UAE and other Gulf nations. However, Tehran could still cause significant damage to cities, especially if it uses the multi-warhead ballistic missiles previously aimed at Israel in recent days. "Hopefully, there will be peace talks to end this soon," said Jacob Benny, an employee at an auditing firm in Dubai.

Thanh Tam (According to WSJ, AFP)