Before the complex of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was hit by a barrage of missiles in an attack campaign conducted by the United States and Israel, he was arguably the most closely monitored individual in the world.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Israel's Mossad had spent years analyzing every movement of Khamenei, his entourage, and the Iranian officials who reported directly to him. This cooperation between the world's two leading intelligence agencies initiated an unprecedented intense attack campaign against Iran.

Unprecedented intelligence cooperation between the United States and Israel

According to informed sources, throughout the preparation for the war and the strike that killed Khamenei, American and Israeli intelligence agencies cooperated to an astonishing degree.

Despite being close allies, they typically exercised caution in sharing their specialized intelligence capabilities. However, last year, for the first time, the United States granted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) direct access to real-time satellite surveillance data, rather than providing information only on a case-by-case basis as before. Israel also possesses its own satellites, but their coverage is limited.

"It's unbelievable, for the first time we could see at our headquarters what the Americans were seeing simultaneously", an Israeli intelligence officer said.

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, on 5/3. Photo: Reuters

Thanks to data collected by the CIA, as well as information leaked to Mossad, intelligence from both countries knew that Iran's Supreme Leader and other senior officials regularly held meetings in Tehran on saturday mornings, which marks the start of the new work week in Iran.

According to senior American and Israeli officials, after the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded on 17/2 without significant progress, American and Israeli military planners were ready to launch airstrikes on saturday morning, 21/2. However, the final attack order was not given.

American and Israeli officials stated that a key reason for this decision was the relatively poor weather conditions in the region at the time. Another Israeli official indicated that the delay was primarily at the request of the United States, which wanted more time to ensure the two nations' militaries could coordinate as smoothly as possible when launching a joint operation.

Meanwhile, a United States administration official acknowledged that there was a weather issue, but that Israel was the party concerned about this factor.

The decision to delay gave United States President Donald Trump more time to choose between two parallel paths: diplomacy and force, options he had considered for nearly two months.

In the following days, American and Israeli intelligence officials were constantly concerned about the possibility of Khamenei moving from his residence to an underground bunker.

Facing the large American forces then concentrated near Iran, Tehran officials tried to persuade Khamenei to move into an underground bunker. However, Iran's Supreme Leader ultimately decided to convene the next meeting on 28/2 in an above-ground building in central Tehran.

A senior United States administration official said they were quite surprised that Iran's Supreme Leader did not retreat to an underground bunker as advised by his counselors.

Decisive moment

American and Israeli intelligence determined the meeting on the morning of 28/2 was the most opportune moment to carry out the attack. Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter stated that two separate meetings were targeted, both focused on options for dealing with the wave of protests in Iran.

According to a senior Israeli official, the initial airstrike targeted not only Leader Khamenei but also his sons and many other senior Iranian officials.

Israel and the United States were concerned that Iranian agents would learn of the impending attack. Therefore, on the evening before the strike, Israeli generals returned home, then used different vehicles to travel to headquarters, aiming to deceive enemy intelligence.

Israeli intelligence and their American partners even sought to "send signals that no attack was imminent, to make Khamenei and others feel secure".

The United States continued negotiations with Iran until 36 hours before the airstrikes, even planning for further discussions. Before the 12-day conflict last June, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) evacuated important bases.

This time, they did not; they only struck by surprise at the decisive moment. Around 9h on 28/2, as Khamenei and his counselors began their regular meeting, Israeli fighter jets were ordered to fire missiles.

The strike caught Iran's entire air defense system by surprise. Khamenei's complex was hit by 30 missiles and completely destroyed. The Supreme Leader and a number of senior Iranian officials died in Israel's initial strikes.

Controversy

Eliminating the leadership has long been a core part of any combat plan. Israel has demonstrated this capability through its superior intelligence. However, even with success and shockwaves, the long-term political consequences of such actions remain a significant question mark.

President Trump also seemed to believe that targeting the enemy's leadership was an action that would quickly conclude the war. Israeli officers described the strike on the morning of 28/2 as a "valuable operational opportunity" to eliminate the current leadership in Iran and pave the way for more amenable successors.

However, assassinations of leaders remain highly controversial, and the outcomes are often uncertain.

Israel has repeatedly killed leaders of armed organizations, even wiping out an entire generation of Hamas leadership, including its founder Ahmed Yassin, yet the force persists and is capable of attacking Israel, culminating in the raid on 7/10/2023.

In 1992, Israeli attack helicopters killed Hezbollah leader Abbas Musawi, but he was subsequently replaced by Hassan Nasrallah, a far more capable leader. Over the next three decades, Nasrallah transformed Hezbollah into a force dominating Lebanese politics and threatening Israel with a formidable arsenal.

Killing a nation's leader escalates risks even further. The death of Iran's Leader could not bring about the swift and decisive outcome President Trump desired, because neither Tel Aviv nor Washington seemed to have calculated the next steps or who would replace Khamenei.

Additionally, there is considerable debate regarding the final negotiations between the United States and Israel in Geneva on 26/2. According to an Israeli official, these talks were merely a delaying tactic until the attack day, making Iran believe that the United States still prioritized diplomacy.

But others asserted that the negotiations were genuine. If Washington had seen clear progress in Geneva, Trump was prepared to postpone the attack again.

A memorial for the late Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on a street in Tehran on 4/3. Photo: Reuters

Two American officials also dismissed the notion that the Geneva talks were a smokescreen. They stated that while United States envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were highly skeptical of reaching an agreement, they were not "acting" to deceive the Iranian side.

When the morning session on 26/2 concluded, Kushner and Witkoff returned with the United States' final proposal, which included a demand for Iran to cease uranium enrichment for 10 years, after which it would only be allowed to maintain a symbolic enrichment capacity. The United States also offered to provide free nuclear fuel to Iran for civilian needs.

Another American official said that Trump's team had made it "very clear" that force would be used if Iran did not accept the deal. However, Iran firmly rejected this offer.

Kushner and Witkoff reported back to Trump. The President then ordered the activation of the American military machine.

"There was truly a coordinated effort to promote good faith negotiations... But ultimately, no results were achieved. Meanwhile, our resources were ready. So, the President decided to attack", a United States official revealed.

Vu Hoang (According to Economist, Axios, AFP, Reuters)