NHK television's election analysis department projected this afternoon that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could secure 274-328 of the 465 seats in Japan's Lower House. This outcome is well above the 198 seats the party currently holds and the 233-seat threshold required for a majority.
This result allows the LDP to secure a majority in Japan's Lower House without forming a coalition with other parties. This would enable Takaichi to remain in power without policy concessions.
 |
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech in Tokyo on 6/1. *AFP*
Takaichi, 64, became Japan's first female prime minister in 10/2025. Her cabinet currently enjoys an approval rating of around 70%.
Before the Lower House was dissolved on 23/1, the ruling coalition of the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) held a narrow majority of 233 seats in the Lower House, while remaining a minority in the Upper House. This composition could impede the government's ability to advance its ambitious policy initiatives.
Takaichi decided to call a snap election amid winter to capitalize on her high personal approval since becoming LDP leader. Her straightforward and diligent public image has garnered broad support among voters. However, her hardline nationalist tendencies and security policy priorities have strained ties between Japan and Trung Quoc.
According to Reuters' pre-election analysis, if the LDP and its partner parties secured 261 seats in the Lower House, Takaichi would control parliamentary committees, facilitating the approval of laws and budget proposals. Should the LDP coalition control 310 seats, the Takaichi cabinet would gain veto power over decisions in the Upper House, where they do not currently hold a majority.
The current projections are even more favorable than the LDP's and JIP's earlier expectations, with the two parties potentially controlling between 302 and 366 seats in Japan's Lower House. Takaichi had previously vowed to resign if the LDP and its partners lost their Lower House majority.
Thanh Danh (Sources: NHK, AFP, Reuters)
