According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, on 7/9, Russia attacked Kiev with 9 Iskander cruise missiles, 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 810 suicide drones accompanied by decoys. Missiles hit the Cabinet of Ministers building, the main government building in the Pecherskyi district, along with several other high-rise buildings.

The attack killed 4 people and injured more than 10. This was Russia's largest missile and drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict.

Smoke rises from the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers building after the Russian attack on Kiev on 7/9. Photo: Reuters

Smoke rises from the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers building after the Russian attack on Kiev on 7/9. Photo: Reuters

"These deadly attacks, which took place at a time when real diplomatic efforts should have begun long ago, are deliberate crimes and will prolong the conflict," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, calling for a "strong response" from the US against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Observers note that Russian air raids on Ukraine have increased significantly since June, with several intense peaks. The previous largest attack was on 9/7 when Moscow launched a total of 741 drones and missiles.

Since the beginning of the month, the Russian military has launched 2,022 drones and missiles at Ukraine, a 42% increase compared to the first 8 days of July. During the first 8 days of August, Russia launched only 683 drones and missiles, fewer than the attack on 7/9 alone. But throughout August, the intensity of attacks gradually increased, reaching a total of 4,288 drones and missiles by the end of the month.

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in the US, the intensity of Russian attacks increased significantly after the bilateral negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey, on 15/5. During these negotiations, the two countries agreed to a large-scale prisoner exchange but did not reach an agreement on ending the fighting.

Analysis from the ISW shows that Russia has carried out 16 major attacks since the negotiations. They also noted that the weekend attack was the 5th attack using over 500 drones and missiles since the summit between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska on 15/8.

Federico Borsari, an expert at the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), believes that the Russian military likely planned to increase such attacks for at least a year.

"There are signs that Russia is trying to increase the scale of weapons launched at Ukraine compared to 2024," he said, adding that increasing the number of drones is an effort to make the attacks more effective.

According to Borsari, for over three years, Russian attacks have "not been truly effective" in diminishing Ukraine's industrial production capacity. The Russian military has also been unable to "create a sense of panic and fear among the population sufficient to discredit the Ukrainian government".

This is considered the reason why Russia launched such a fierce attack on 7/9, the first time hitting the Ukrainian government building. "Russia's aim now is not only to destroy power plants or other infrastructure but also to sow deeper fear and create a sense of panic among the population," Borsari said.

He believes that the psychological impact of the air raids could "reduce the Ukrainian forces' recruitment ability" and "this is definitely a big problem for Kiev".

Sharing the same view, Marcel Plichta, a former analyst at the US Department of Defense, assessed that "besides attracting public attention, large-scale attacks can also overwhelm Ukraine's air defense system and weaken the morale of its people".

On the other hand, according to officials and analysts in both Ukraine and Europe, Russia often launches fierce attacks at times of geopolitical significance, targeting symbolic targets to strengthen its position at the negotiating table.

The Kiev attack took place just three days after European leaders gathered in Paris to discuss the idea of sending troops to Ukraine to ensure security after a peace agreement is signed. Russia's actions seem to signal that such Western forces would face deadly risks if present in Ukraine, experts speculate.

President Putin has warned that any foreign soldiers deployed to Ukraine, even as peacekeepers, would become "legitimate targets".

Russia claims its recent attacks have mainly targeted Ukrainian military-industrial infrastructure, but Moscow also considers government buildings or places where foreign forces are stationed as legitimate military targets.

"This is a clear sign that Mr. Putin is trying to test the world," President Zelensky said of the attack, adding that it was also meant to assess how strong the response from Western countries would be.

An apartment building in Kiev hit by a Russian attack on 7/9. Photo: Reuters

An apartment building in Kiev hit by a Russian attack on 7/9. Photo: Reuters

According to Kaja Kallas, the European Union's (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, each Russian attack is considered to send a message. And in this Kiev attack, Moscow seems to be declaring that it is not ready for peace talks, she said.

A recent US media analysis of Russian air raids shows that after phone calls between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin from February to July, Russia carried out more intense attacks than average on Ukraine.

For example, a day after the phone call on 3/7, Russia launched 550 drones and missiles. This number is much higher than the average of 118 drones and missiles per day that Russia launched in the first 6 months of this year.

Before the recent peace talks took place, military analysts warned that peace talks could usher in a bloodier phase of the conflict. According to them, the two countries' armies would try to gain as much advantage as possible before the front lines are "frozen", thereby giving them an edge in negotiations.

In this respect, Russia's attack seems to be a challenge to the US president. On 7/9, Mr. Trump said he planned to call Mr. Putin in the next few days and meet with European leaders in Washington to continue efforts to end the conflict.

Vu Hoang (Independent, AFP, Reuters)