Former US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on 15/8/2024, where the Ukraine conflict was expected to be a central topic of discussion. Before the meeting, Trump mentioned the idea that both Russia and Ukraine would need to make territorial concessions to end the war.

"There will be exchanges, there will be changes of land," he said.

Several news agencies reported that Russia proposed Ukraine cede the remaining territory in Donetsk province in exchange for a ceasefire. The offer was conveyed to the White House through US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who visited the Kremlin on 8/8/2024.

However, a peace agreement requiring Kyiv to cede territory to Moscow would not only spark strong domestic opposition but also be considered a violation of the Ukrainian constitution.

Article 2 of the Ukrainian constitution emphasizes that Ukraine's sovereignty covers its entire territory, is indivisible, and cannot be violated. This provision prohibits any actions altering territorial integrity without a referendum, including by the president, cabinet, or parliament.

"Any changes to the territory can only be decided by the people, not the president or the government of Ukraine," said Ihor Reiterovych, a political science professor at Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv. "If President Volodymyr Zelensky agrees to exchange territory with Russia in negotiations, he will immediately become a criminal, for abandoning the highest law of Ukraine."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on 4/6/2024. Photo: AP

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on 4/6/2024. Photo: AP

Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, stretching from the northeast to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Russia holds almost all of Luhansk province and nearly two-thirds of Donetsk province, the two regions that make up Ukraine's strategic industrial heartland, Donbass. More than half of Kherson province and part of Zaporizhzhia province are also under Russian control.

In addition, the Russian military holds some small areas in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions of northeastern Ukraine, and has captured some villages in Dnipropetrovsk province. These are reportedly the areas Moscow is willing to exchange for more important territory in Donetsk.

The Ukrainian military is operating in Russia's border province of Kursk, but they control virtually no territory there. This makes it a less effective bargaining chip than Ukrainian leaders had hoped when they launched a cross-border attack last summer.

In an interview with CBS on 10/8/2024, Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova explained that the President is only the "guardian of the constitution," and Article 133 of the constitution states that he has no authority to cede territory.

Areas controlled by Russia (pink). Graphic: WP

Areas controlled by Russia (pink). Graphic: WP

Beyond the lack of legal authority, Ukrainian leaders believe accepting such an agreement would be a political disaster, potentially facing a backlash from the public, especially hardliners.

A land cession agreement would mean that Ukrainians still clinging to their homes in Donetsk would have to leave, after enduring significant loss and suffering since the conflict began in late 2/2022.

This is why President Zelensky firmly rejects the idea of territorial concessions to Russia. "The answer to the territorial issue is already in the Ukrainian constitution. No one will deviate from that, and no one can do so. Ukrainians do not cede land to occupiers," Zelensky said.

President Zelensky is working to regain public trust, which was weakened after he signed a law that could undermine the independence of the country's anti-corruption watchdog. The move faced strong opposition, as it was seen as a red line for those who want to protect the country's institutions and are skeptical of some members of Zelensky's cabinet. Under intense domestic pressure, Zelensky withdrew the decision.

For many Ukrainians, the demand to give up territory is unacceptable because it would signify surrender to Russia. Even if the media currently suggests that Russia might only ask Ukraine to cede the rest of Donetsk province, that also seems unlikely to garner support.

"When they talk about Donetsk province like it's a hot potato that can be given away, I want them to remember that everyone here has families, loved ones, hopes, and desires for a peaceful life and a future for their children. Disregarding their fate would be inhumane," warned Oleksii Ladyka, a resident of Kramatorsk city in Donetsk and a soldier in Ukraine's 92nd Assault Brigade.

Many Ukrainians also fear Russia will not stop its campaign even after Kyiv makes territorial concessions.

"I really want the war to end, but would I trade my hometown of Kramatorsk for peace? I don't know if I will ever find the final answer to that question, but I know the Russians won't stop. If the agreement only includes our withdrawal from Donetsk, they will continue their attacks afterward," Ladyka said.

Analysts like Reiterovych believe the only option Ukrainians are willing to accept is freezing the conflict along the current front lines. However, this is not a viable long-term solution.

"It's just the lesser of two evils for everyone, and it won't cause protests or marches in the streets," Reiterovych said.

Thuy Lam (According to AP, Kyiv Independent, WP)