Videos posted on X last weekend showed a Ukrainian An-124 cargo plane flying low over Kyiv, surprising people on the ground. "What is that? Is that normal?" one woman asked. "Have they reopened the airspace?" a man wondered.

This was the first time an An-124 had been seen in Kyiv's airspace in over three years. After the conflict began in early 2022, Ukrainian officials closed the capital's airspace to all non-military aircraft.

Based on satellite imagery, the US military website War Zone assessed that the An-124 likely took off from Svyatoshino Airport in Kyiv, where it had been grounded for over four years. This is also the headquarters of a factory belonging to the Antonov aircraft manufacturing company.

This facility remained mostly undamaged, even though the nearby Hostomel Airport, along with the An-225 cargo plane and several other aircraft parked there, were destroyed in the early days of the conflict.

Open-source data indicated that the Ukrainian An-124 landed at Antonov's facility in Leipzig, Germany, where the company has concentrated most of its operations since the outbreak of the conflict.

Some Russian military analysts suggested the An-124 was evacuated from Dnipro to prevent it from being targeted.

An An-124 aircraft at Svyatoshino Airport in a satellite image taken on 2/7. Photo: Planet Labs

Data from flight tracking website Flightradar24 showed the aircraft flying over western Ukraine and close to the Polish border that afternoon, but there was no information about its origin. The plane likely disabled its transponder until it was about to leave Ukrainian airspace to avoid detection. The An-124 then flew over Poland before landing in Germany.

The An-124's flight became a topic of debate among Russian military analysts.

"This is a sad event for our intelligence services. It's not sad that the An-124 arrived at its destination, but that it left unharmed. And it landed at night, when our agents were sleeping," a Russian fighter pilot said.

The pilot added that a large aircraft like the An-124 can only take off and land at a few airports in Ukraine. "Monitoring these facilities is a top priority for reconnaissance and intelligence. Moreover, the aircraft had been parked there for a long time, and we have plenty of methods to attack any airport," the pilot stated.

Flight path of the An-124 aircraft. Graphic: FlightRadar24

Meanwhile, War Zone writer Howard Altman argued that while Russia has significantly improved its reconnaissance and targeting capabilities compared to the early stages of the conflict, it still faces challenges in hitting mobile targets, even one as large as the An-124.

Lack of intelligence and the dense air defense network in Kyiv could also be reasons why the An-124 wasn't destroyed before takeoff.

Relocating the An-124 abroad to maintain commercial cargo services would be a significant victory for Antonov and Ukraine, as it's an important source of revenue and will directly support military operations, Altman added.

Pham Giang (According to War Zone, Euromaidan Press)