Deep State, an analytical group linked to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, released a map on 29/7 showing Russian forces closing in on the strategic stronghold of Pokrovsk in Donetsk province. They have even launched an offensive into the southwestern outskirts of the city. Russia has also expanded its control area north of the neighboring city of Mirnograd.

Ukrainian media on the same day, citing military sources, reported that Russian offensives over the past 3 months have created a pincer movement more than 10 km wide on the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd front.

This could put Ukrainian units defending the area at risk of being trapped in a "cauldron," a term often used by Russia to describe large encirclements on the battlefield, where they use large forces to surround multiple sides, leaving only one escape route for the enemy.

Situation on the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd front, Donetsk province, 29/7. Graphic: Deep State

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russia is continuing to pursue its goal of encircling Pokrovsk, and their reconnaissance groups have advanced into the south of the city.

"Russia is advancing in the northeast of Pokrovsk to support its campaign to encircle the city and neighboring Mirnograd. They are likely to block the Pokrovsk-Dobropolye highway, hindering Ukrainian withdrawal efforts," the ISW assessed.

According to the ISW, Russia will maintain its offensive in the northeast of Pokrovsk, as well as attacking the city from the south and southwest to force Ukrainian units to retreat.

The news site Sho na fronti, linked to the Ukrainian military, admitted that "many Russian reconnaissance groups have infiltrated Pokrovsk." "There is no clear front line here; most Ukrainian commanders do not know the area they are responsible for well. What is happening in the city is not defense, but complete chaos," the news site reported.

Fighting is taking place near the nearby Rodynskoe mine, a small city north of Pokrovsk. If Mirnograd and Rodynskoe fall, Russian drones will directly threaten Pokrovsk's key logistics lines and put the defenders in a more dire situation.

The highway east of Pokrovsk, connecting the city to the nearby stronghold of Konstantinovka, has been cut off by Russian forces. The remaining road connecting Pokrovsk to the city of Pavlograd in Dnipropetrovsk province is still operational. However, Ukrainian soldiers report that movement on the roads near Pokrovsk is becoming increasingly difficult.

Russian BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers attack Ukrainian positions on 1/7. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defence

Ivan Stupak, a Ukrainian military expert, believes the Ukrainian army will likely have to leave Pokrovsk within the next 60 days. "The Russian army is gradually tightening the encirclement," Stupak said. "The corridor in and out of Pokrovsk is about 17 km wide, and movement through it is still relatively safe. However, if the situation worsens, trying to hold onto Pokrovsk will be impossible," he said.

Ukrainian experts and soldiers assess that the current situation in Pokrovsk is similar to that of Avdeevka and Ugledar, strategic strongholds that the Ukrainian army had to abandon after Russian forces established a pincer movement and created a cauldron. Ukrainian units tried to hold onto the two cities for as long as possible, resulting in difficult withdrawals under heavy Russian fire and heavy casualties.

The Russian Ministry of Defence and the Ukrainian military have not commented on the information.

Pokrovsk is an important logistics hub and one of Ukraine's main strongholds in Donetsk province. The city is located about 40 km northwest of Avdeevka, guarding a strategic junction towards the cities of Donetsk and Bakhmut, and is also located next to the railway line passing through Avdeevka.

If Pokrovsk is lost, Ukrainian forces will expose the southern flank of the Chasov Yar stronghold and the neighboring cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Controlling Pokrovsk would help Russia weaken Ukraine's defenses and supply capabilities in Donetsk, bringing them closer to their goal of controlling the entire province.

Nguyen Tien (According to AFP, AP, RBC Ukraine)