Donald Trump, elected president in 2024 on a pledge to avoid endless wars, now faces the challenge of ending the conflict he launched against Iran on 28/2.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signs a memorandum with the US in Tehran, Iran on 18/6. Photo: AP

Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum last month to end hostilities, open the Strait of Hormuz, and lift US blockades on Iranian seaports. Both sides agreed to discuss thornier issues, such as Iran's nuclear program and other sanctions, within the next 60 days.

However, two weeks after the memorandum took effect, nuclear negotiations have yet to truly begin. Instead, the United States and Iran continue to dispute control over the Strait of Hormuz, whether Israel must end its war in Lebanon, and if frozen Iranian assets under US sanctions will be released.

"These issues should have been resolved," said Benoit Faucon, a WSJ analyst. Yet, the United States and Iran have not made any mutual concessions to move towards more complex negotiations.

Faucon believes President Trump faces a "negotiation quagmire" as Iran employs a familiar tactic: prolonging talks and delaying any concessions that touch their red lines.

This tactic is not unfamiliar to those who previously negotiated with Iran on its nuclear program. Under President Barack Obama, the United States and P5+1 powers spent years in dialogue, enduring countless delays, before signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 to curb Tehran's nuclear program.

Despite these efforts, the parties ultimately could not compel Tehran to make concessions beyond its red lines. Iran maintained its right to enrich uranium and its nuclear program, which it claims serves civilian purposes.

Richard Nephew, a former senior US diplomat with years of experience negotiating with Iran, noted it is unsurprising that Tehran has so far dismissed any substantive nuclear talks, instead drawing Washington and mediators into disputes over ceasefire terms.

"The history of nuclear negotiations with Iran since 2003 shows that the Iranians are adept at delaying sensitive and important nuclear issues, while trying to steer discussions towards terms and topics where they hold an advantage," Nephew stated.

President Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, hoped to revive the stalled peace process upon arriving in Qatar this week, before addressing how to curb Iran's nuclear program.

However, recent negotiations faced threats when the two sides engaged in three days of conflict.

Tehran was displeased when Oman established a shipping lane in its territorial waters for vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's permission. Iran responded by resuming attacks on cargo ships, prompting US airstrikes against Iran before both sides agreed to a ceasefire and restarted talks in Qatar.

On 1/7, President Trump praised the progress of indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Doha, describing the exchanges as favorable.

"The president will not send our troops back unless it is absolutely necessary," said US Vice President JD Vance on 1/7. "If they attempt to rebuild their nuclear program or continue attacking commercial shipping, that would alter our calculations. But currently, the president's directive is: go and reach a deal."

Trump later stated in an interview that Iran "agreed to almost everything we needed."

Immediately afterward, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted a message asserting that the US was "causing insecurity in the region." This message indicated that the Doha negotiations were not progressing as smoothly as President Trump claimed.

"Peace in the region can only be sustainable if it is comprehensive, inclusive, and free from external interference," Foreign Minister Araghchi declared. The negotiation process between the two sides is temporarily paused until at least 9/7, when Iran holds the funeral for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Alan Eyre, an expert at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera that US-Iran negotiations in recent days have been fragmented, and he hopes both sides will accelerate the pace after Ali Khamenei's funeral.

"The two sides have yet to agree on a mechanism to maintain free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, or how to resolve issues related to Lebanon and Iran's nuclear program," Eyre noted. "The thornier nuclear issue is largely being sidelined."

The prolonged negotiations pose a difficult problem for Trump, who famously claimed on social media in 2020 that "Iran has never won a war, but has never lost a negotiation."

However, if the two sides return to a cycle of conflict, it would contradict his long-standing commitment to avoid getting bogged down in endless conflicts. During his 2024 campaign, he vowed to "permanently close the era of senseless, foolish, and endless wars."

With the White House explicitly opposing the idea of renewed military action, a prolonged stalemate is the likely scenario, with negotiations continuing indefinitely or gradually faltering, according to Laurence Norman, a WSJ commentator.

During this time, the United States and Iran will only maintain the minimum terms of the memorandum: no new US sanctions, Iran's nuclear program remaining at its current status, and Tehran continuing to receive sanctions relief for oil exports.

"Iran is entirely willing to prolong the process rather than create progress. They understand that, at least in the short term, time is on their side," expert Eyre observed.

US President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. on 24/6. Photo: AFP

The interim memorandum establishes important conditions as "rules of the game" until both sides reach a final agreement, according to David S. Cloud, a WSJ commentator. The deadline is expected on 18/8, but talks can be extended if both parties agree.

The US Department of the Treasury has also fulfilled the Trump administration's promise to ease oil sanctions on Tehran, allowing Iran free access to this revenue. This is a crucial economic lifeline for the Iranian government, helping them generate USD 10 billion in just two months.

Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes that despite employing all delaying tactics, Iran's leadership ultimately seeks a long-term agreement with the United States to reduce economic isolation and minimize the risk of renewed conflict.

"They need leverage to gradually normalize the country. But at the same time, they are concerned that conflict could erupt again at any moment," he said.

Ships anchored off the coast of Iran's Bandar Abbas city near the Strait of Hormuz on 1/6. Photo: AFP

Commentator Faucon suggests that maintaining the status quo offers certain benefits for both sides. Iran would not have to make major concessions on its nuclear program, which it claims is for peaceful purposes.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, would not have to fulfill its commitment to lift all sanctions against Iran, a move that could face congressional backlash and provide significant financial resources for Tehran to rebuild its military and continue supporting allied forces in the region.

However, analysts also point to several scenarios that could end the current stalemate. Tensions between Israel and Iran could once again escalate into direct conflict over the situation in Lebanon, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government launched a war against the Hezbollah armed group. Tehran has repeatedly warned that Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon would be considered a violation of ceasefire terms.

The White House might also conclude that Iran is not serious about nuclear negotiations. Combined with Tehran's deliberate control over the Strait of Hormuz, these factors would make the status quo unsustainable.

"It is likely that the signed memorandum will be the first and last agreement President Trump and Iran sign together," said Michael Singh, former director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.

Thanh Tam (According to WSJ, AFP, Reuters)