NBC News reported on 7/10, citing an unnamed US official and a source familiar with the matter, that President Donald Trump and his security cabinet have discussed the possibility of resuming strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. This includes an option to attack before the midterm elections in early November. The Atlantic also reported on 7/10 that the Trump administration is considering strikes against Iran before the midterm elections.

Two US officials stated that security cabinet members discussed strategy regarding Iran and the Houthi armed group in Yemen during a meeting at Camp David, Maryland, last week. The US military subsequently prepared new operational plans for President Trump's consideration. However, no decision has been made yet, according to the sources.

Axios reported on the same day, citing unnamed US officials, that the Pentagon has instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM), the agency responsible for US military operations in the Middle East, to complete preparations for resuming large-scale combat operations against Iran. This directive did not specify when the US would launch an attack, and President Trump has not made a final decision. Nevertheless, US and Israeli sources indicated that this could occur before the US midterm elections, possibly even before the elections in Israel.

According to Axios sources, if the campaign against Iran resumes, the US expects to conduct intense bombing of targets related to its nuclear program, infrastructure, and energy facilities. It is likely that the Israeli military would also participate in this operation.

Two Israeli officials stated that Iran is "desperate and suspicious", which could lead Tehran to strike first. According to them, Iran has been unexpectedly attacked two times and does not want to experience this a third time. "The scenario of resuming large-scale combat operations in Iran is being discussed more frequently. The likelihood of that happening before the midterm elections is not high, but we do not rule it out. After the midterm elections, this possibility will increase significantly", an Israeli official commented.

A US F-35A fighter jet flying in the Middle East on 10/9. Photo: USAF

A Pentagon official told Axios that the agency's mission is to "develop and present military options to the US President". A White House official added that "The US currently holds a very strong position, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's economy is collapsing. Iran has been severely devastated, and things will proceed in two ways: easily and with difficulty. President Trump holds all the cards and will do what is best for the US."

This information emerges amidst stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with mediator Qatar awaiting Iran's response to a US counter-proposal. This proposal includes a clause requiring Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program.

Axios suggests that the US resuming strikes against Iran within the next 3-4 weeks could impact the midterm elections, partly because it would cause oil prices to rise. Such action could also affect elections in Israel, as Iran might launch hundreds of missiles in retaliation. A new escalation could bring political benefits to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, preventing opponents from attacking him in the final stage of his election campaign.

Pham Giang (According to Axios, NBC News, Atlantic)