Soybean fields in southern Illinois are entering their main harvest season, but for farmers like Scott Gaffner, this period, which should be one of reaping rewards, is turning into a source of worry.

"Most of the soybeans here usually go to China, but not this year", he said.

Gaffner stated that farmers like him, who voted for President Donald Trump, are "caught in the crossfire" of the US-China trade war.

A farmer in his field in Magnolia, Kentucky, US. Photo: Reuters

"We are extremely worried and wonder why it is taking so long to resolve this", he added.

"Everything will collapse if we don't reach an agreement with China soon", said Ron Kindred, a corn and soybean farmer in central Illinois. "It seems the Chinese are not in a hurry, while US farmers are on tenterhooks".

In 2024, the Chinese market accounted for more than half of the total USD 24,5 billion in US soybean exports. China primarily imports soybeans for animal feed. In recent years, the country has shifted its focus to South America, purchasing soybeans from Brazil and Argentina.

China has turned away from US soybeans for many months, making this agricultural product a potent weapon in the trade war between Beijing and Washington. From January to August this year, China's soybean purchases from the US were only about 25% compared to the same period last year.

Kindred has harvested about half of this year's soybean crop. He secured contracts to sell about 40% of his output, but the remaining 60% remains unsold. He noted that soybean prices in the region are declining.

Rising costs for equipment and fertilizer, coupled with a nationwide surplus of corn and soybeans, are putting immense pressure on US farmers. Last December, the US Congress approved a USD 10 billion relief package for farmers. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump's administration is considering allocating an additional USD 10 billion to 14 billion to help farmers mitigate losses from this year's trade disputes.

President Trump announced at the White House on 6/10 that he "will take action on agriculture" this week to help farmers cope with the loss of export markets to China.

According to a White House official, President Trump is expected to meet with Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins later this week to make a final decision on funding for the farmer relief package. The President and his team are considering using tariff revenues to finance most of the aid.

A spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture stated that the President is utilizing every tool available to ensure farmers have what they need to continue their operations.

However, Gaffner believes that relief measures are not a long-term solution. "We don't need relief; we need trade", he asserted. "Once China establishes trade routes with other customers, they will be reluctant to return to the US for agricultural products. If we lose the Chinese market, it will be difficult for us to recover. This will be a significant loss for the next generation".

In an effort to reduce dependence on China, Kindred has explored other markets, trying to persuade livestock farmers to buy more US soybeans.

"We cannot find a replacement for the Chinese market overnight. But we have had some success stories in recent years", he commented.

The next two largest customers for US soybeans are the European Union (EU) and Mexico, with combined annual sales of about USD 5 billion. In recent years, countries like Egypt and Bangladesh have also increased their purchases of US soybeans, but this is still not enough to compensate.

Morey Hill, a soybean farmer in Iowa, has traveled to Cambodia multiple times this year, most recently last week.

During his trip, he spoke to local importers and farmers about the techniques US farmers use to produce nearly 109 million tons of soybeans annually.

Visiting fish ponds in rural Cambodia, Hill explained how Americans can raise better quality, fatter fish by switching to high-protein soybean meal as feed, instead of using traditional, cheaper feed made from ground small fish.

In November, he plans to visit Morocco to market soybeans to local chicken farmers, persuading them to use soybeans for poultry feed.

Hill, like thousands of other US farmers, began shifting from growing grass to soybeans about three decades ago, responding to soaring demand from the Chinese market. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, the area planted with soybeans in the US increased by nearly 40% from 1995 to 2024.

For this fall's harvest, Hill intends to store soybeans in his warehouse instead of selling them.

"There is no incentive to sell soybeans right now", he stated, adding that if the US does not soon reach a trade agreement with China, the soybean market will face "disaster".

Robb Ewoldt, a farmer in Iowa, visited Rome, Italy, earlier this year. There, he spoke with a major Tunisian poultry producer. This company was concerned about whether they could continue to purchase US soybeans consistently each year, or if US farmers would switch to growing other crops, causing supply to drop and prices to rise.

According to Ewoldt, finding new markets will help in the long run, but if US farmers cannot sell soybeans soon, he fears his farm will not be able to survive.

Soybean harvest in Warren, Indiana, US, in September. Photo: AP

"Our farm needs almost USD one million each year to operate", he explained. "Thus, we need about USD 1,3 million to cover debt costs and maintain our livelihood".

The outlook for US agriculture has recently become so dire that some farmers have been forced to leave the profession. Dean Buchholz, a corn and soybean farmer in DeKalb County, Illinois, noted that fertilizer costs have increased by 20-30% compared to last year. Due to high costs, low agricultural product prices, and some personal health issues, this will be Buchholz's final year farming. He plans to lease his land next year.

"I always thought I would be a farmer until my dying day", Buchholz reflected. "But I cannot continue if I keep losing money".

Vu Hoang (According to WSJ, CBS News, AFP)