In the coffee heartlands of Dak Lak and Lam Dong, prices stood at approximately 89,000 dong per kg on the morning of 2/4, remaining at their lowest point this year. Two days prior, domestic prices had dropped to 87,000 dong per kg on 31/3, around 32% lower than the same period in 2025.
Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), stated that the recent decline is primarily due to expectations of a significant increase in supply. Brazil is preparing for its harvest season from june-july, with an anticipated output of 74-75 million bags, while demand shows no corresponding signs of growth.
This trend also reflects adjustments in the global market, where exchanges have seen continuous fluctuations. On the New York exchange, arabica coffee prices, converted, reached approximately 6,564 US dollars per ton for the may contract, a decrease of 0,17%, while the july contract was around 6,421 US dollars per ton. In London, robusta prices for the may contract were 3,521 US dollars per ton, but the july contract was lower, at about 3,428 US dollars per ton, indicating expectations of price weakening in the medium term.
According to Hai, beyond supply and demand, financial and geopolitical volatility have also caused coffee prices to fluctuate more sharply. The futures market recently saw a wave of liquidation of buy positions following a period of rapid increase. Profit-taking activities intensified amid hopes for de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, thereby reducing the risk of transport disruptions in the Hormuz Strait.
From a business perspective, high input and logistics costs have led to more cautious trading due to concerns about narrowing profit margins. An exporter in Ho Chi Minh City (TP HCM) reported that shipping costs to Europe have doubled, forcing them to export intermittently, which in turn slows down domestic procurement and weakens demand.
However, when prices fall significantly, both Vietnamese and Brazilian farmers tend to limit sales or sell only small quantities, helping to prevent further price drops in the short term.
For Vietnam, Hai noted that the current crop year's output is projected to increase by about 5%, reaching 1,8-1,9 million tons, equivalent to 30-31 million bags. Nevertheless, the market outlook remains heavily dependent on weather conditions. The risk of El Nino emerging in the coming months could become a significant variable, affecting global coffee supply from late 2026 and early 2027.
Thi Ha
