A first quarter market report from Cushman&Wakefield indicates that primary apartment sale prices in Ho Chi Minh City's core area (excluding Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau) reached nearly 7,300 USD (over 190 million dong) per square meter. This represents a 19% increase from the previous quarter and a 53% rise year-on-year.

This is the highest level ever recorded, exceeding the average primary price of landed homes, which stood at around 7,200 USD (188 million dong) per square meter during the same period. In many suburban areas, primary landed home prices are significantly lower, ranging from 90-120 million dong per square meter, much less than the city's average apartment price.

According to Cushman&Wakefield, the price surge primarily stems from the dominance of luxury and ultra-luxury projects in the eastern and southern regions. During the first quarter, the luxury segment accounted for about 72% of new supply, with the remainder belonging to the high-end category. Notable projects launched include Masteri Cosmo Central, Masteri Park Place, and Sunshine Sky City.

The continuous peak in sale prices is creating significant pressure on market liquidity. In the past quarter, Ho Chi Minh City's core area saw about 1,200 new apartments launched for sale, but transactions reached just over 800 units. This represents approximately 25% of the primary supply, a decrease of 74% quarter-on-quarter and 31% year-on-year.

Real estate in central Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Quynh Tran

Similar price and liquidity trends were also observed by other research firms. According to Avison Young Vietnam, average apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City in the first quarter reached nearly 122 million dong per square meter. Luxury and high-end segments commonly ranged from 250-400 million dong per square meter. Meanwhile, the absorption rate for apartments was only 35% of the total available stock.

Data from the Ministry of Construction also shows apartment prices in the city fluctuating between 112-130 million dong per square meter, while many high-end projects are offered from 200-330 million dong per square meter. Apartment purchasing power decreased last quarter, largely because housing prices are exceeding the affordability of most genuine buyers.

Ms. Le Hoang Lan Nhu Ngoc, Senior Director of Consulting at Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, states that the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market is showing a growing imbalance between supply and demand. While newly launched projects are mainly in the high-end segment, actual demand focuses on mid-range and affordable products. Additionally, rising home loan interest rates and more cautious credit policies have led many customers to postpone their purchasing decisions.

Ms. Cao Thi Thanh Huong, Deputy Director of Market Research at Savills Vietnam, indicates that new apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City this year is projected to reach about 13,000 units. However, this figure is still significantly lower than the market's actual demand, which is estimated at up to about 50,000 units per year, considering population growth and urbanization rates.

"When supply is limited, prices will be difficult to decrease significantly, even if liquidity weakens", Ms. Huong commented.

Experts also note that the supply shortage is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Increased project development costs and loan interest rates also raise financial pressure on businesses, while building material prices tend to rise. These factors make widespread price reductions almost unfeasible.

Escalating prices are creating a shift in demand from central areas to satellite cities. According to Cushman&Wakefield, this trend is clearly reflected in past transaction developments in Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau. In the first quarter, these two areas recorded over 7,000 new apartments launched for sale, nearly six times the supply in the city's core area.

Liquidity also remained positive with over 6,100 successful transactions. Binh Duong alone recorded about 5,400 transactions, corresponding to an average absorption rate of nearly 77%, indicating substantial real demand.

One of the biggest advantages of satellite cities is significantly lower prices compared to central Ho Chi Minh City. Cushman & Wakefield reports that the average primary apartment price in Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau is currently around 50 million dong per square meter, only one-fourth of the price in the city's core area.

The large price gap creates significant appeal for both genuine buyers and long-term investors, especially as the regional infrastructure network continues to expand. Ring roads, expressways, metro lines, and other transport projects connecting Ho Chi Minh City with Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Ba Ria - Vung Tau are shortening travel times and increasing the attractiveness of these areas.

In this context, the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market is expected to continue its strong differentiation. The central area will likely maintain high prices due to limited supply and demand for properties in prime locations. Satellite cities are projected to meet the housing needs of the majority of residents and become the main drivers of market liquidity in the coming years.

Phuong Uyen