In its September strategy report, Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities expressed optimism about the medium and long-term prospects of the VN-Index. They suggest that if the upward momentum is maintained and exchange rate pressure remains within the State Bank of Vietnam's acceptable range, the index could reach 1,800 points, or even 2,000 points, in the remaining months of the year.
According to their analysis, the base case scenario for the market is to establish a short-term support level at 1,650 points, about 15 points lower than the September 8th reference point, before rising to 1,800. In a less optimistic scenario, the index could form a medium-term support level at 1,550 points.
Evaluating the current market trends, Mirae Asset notes that large fluctuations have become increasingly common since the second half of August and are expected to persist throughout September. Some trading sessions have seen ranges (the difference between the highest and lowest prices) of up to 100 points, demonstrating a strong rotation of capital among investor groups and stocks. The role of institutional investors is also becoming more prominent, with their trading value proportion increasing from 6-10% in 2023-2024 to 40-50% in the last 4 months.
The analysis team identifies two factors positively impacting the VN-Index: the FTSE Russell's assessment of Vietnam's stock market upgrade potential and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s interest rate decision in its September meeting. However, they point out that neither of these factors is new. Any shift in information could trigger investors to take profits and secure recent gains.
Mirae Asset's latest forecast significantly exceeds their predictions in the mid-year strategy report released in mid-June. At that time, they were "cautiously optimistic" about market growth and believed that broader capital flow was needed for the VN-Index to reach 1,400 points (the market has since surpassed 1,700 points at times).
Before Mirae Asset, several securities companies and investment funds also expressed a positive outlook for the VN-Index's medium and long-term performance, but none predicted it would exceed 2,000 points. For instance, VNDirect Securities forecast the VN-Index to reach 1,850-1,900 points in the next 9-12 months, while An Binh Securities (ABS) expects the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange's representative index to rise to 1,792-1,864 points in the "medium term."
Most securities companies believe the primary driver for the index to reach new heights is the recovery in listed companies' profits. Furthermore, the potential market upgrade and the prospect of the Fed easing monetary policy are contributing factors.
Phuong Dong
