According to statistics from FiinTrade, a platform providing in-depth securities data and analysis under FiinGroup, the amount of cash awaiting securities purchases, or investor deposits at brokerage firms, saw a sharp decline in Q4/2025. It fell by over 40 trillion VND, a 29% decrease, to approximately 98.7 trillion VND.

FiinTrade suggested this decrease could be due to capital being disbursed into stocks. However, overall market trading liquidity in Q4/2025 also declined, while outstanding margin loans continued to expand. This indicates that buying power was not significant and was instead offset by leverage.

Cash awaiting securities purchases might also decrease due to participation in initial public offerings (IPOs). In the last quarter of 2025, the market saw a number of notable IPOs, such as VPX from VPBankS and VCK from VPS Securities. However, the estimated total issuance value was much lower than the decline in deposits at brokerage firms.

Therefore, FiinTrade believes this development more likely reflects capital withdrawing from the securities system, rather than a reallocation from "cash awaiting purchase" to stock positions.

Statistics of investor cash awaiting securities purchases by quarter. Graphic: Fiintrade

Commenting to VnExpress, financial analyst Huynh Hoang Phuong noted that cash awaiting securities purchases is end-of-quarter data, reflecting the state at a specific point in time. It does not describe the entire process of capital movement throughout the quarter. Therefore, relying solely on this indicator is insufficient to conclude that capital is leaving the securities channel.

In reality, the amount of cash at brokerage firms can decrease for various reasons. First, capital might have been disbursed again in Q4/2025, leading to a reduction in the balance of cash awaiting purchase. Second, during periods when clear market opportunities are scarce, investors tend to temporarily shift capital to short-term interest-bearing channels rather than keeping it idle in securities accounts. Additionally, rising deposit interest rates from late 2025 also made the need to optimize capital efficiency more pronounced.

Furthermore, many brokerage firms have implemented automatic profit-generating solutions for temporary surplus cash in accounts. Essentially, this service is similar to a short-term entrustment, and this money may no longer be directly recorded as cash balance in investor accounts.

Considering historical data, the surge in cash at the end of Q3/2025, followed by a decline in the last quarter of the year to a level equivalent to mid-Q2/2025, also supports these arguments. In summary, according to the expert, a decrease in cash awaiting purchase cannot be seen as a sign of investors abandoning the securities channel.

However, it is also important to recognize that from Q4/2025, short-term speculation on new index levels became more challenging. Bank credit and liquidity buffers were clearly restricted after two quarters of strong acceleration. This caused a portion of "easy" capital, driven by policy or short-term speculation, to withdraw from the market.

"Speculative and interest-rate-sensitive capital has withdrawn, but most of the decline in cash awaiting purchase in Q4/2025 stemmed from technical factors, capital reallocation, and specific market activities, rather than reflecting a clear trend of withdrawal from the securities channel," Phuong stated.

Investors observe the electronic board at a brokerage firm headquarters in TP HCM. Photo: An Khuong

Recently, brokerage firms have issued messages suggesting that a declining cash balance combined with continuously rising margin debt could be a signal to watch. According to FiinTrade, the discrepancy among deposits, liquidity, and margin debt increases the market's sensitivity to liquidity shocks or shifts in investor sentiment.

In a recent report, SGI Capital, the fund management company for The Ballad Fund, also stated that the aforementioned context would make interest rate trends the most important factor for domestic capital flows. Rising interest rates and tight liquidity will continue to pressure accounts with large debts from margin sources and other short-term capital.

"The highly speculative activity during last year's peak is intensely repeating in early 2026, indicating investors' hasty sentiment and the continued dominance of hot money," the analysis team commented.

SGI Capital believes the economy and stock market are showing many signs of being in the late stage of a growth cycle, characterized by high debt, rising interest rates, and declining liquidity in asset channels before a downward price trend manifests. This environment will not be suitable for a high-weight buy-and-hold strategy, especially for cyclical and interest-rate-sensitive stock groups.

According to experts, cash has become scarcer and more valuable. Therefore, maintaining a high-quality portfolio and holding a significant cash position will help investors navigate difficult periods and actively seize opportunities to buy cheap in a potentially volatile year like 2026.

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