The VN-Index concluded the trading week of 6-10/7 down 33.7 points, or 1.81%, at 1,828.4 points, marking its second consecutive weekly correction. Foreign investors net sold 3.314 billion VND, an 18% decrease from the prior week, according to Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).

Average daily trading value on HoSE last week reached 16.972 billion VND. This marked a 10.51% drop from the first week of July and was only about 63% of the average for the first six months of the year, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) data showed.

Stock trading at Kafi exchange, April 2026. Photo: Quynh Tran

Nguyen Tan Phong, an analyst at Pinetree Securities, predicts the market will likely face challenges this week. He suggests the VN-Index could retest the mid-term low around 1,790 points, established last month, due to evident liquidity drying up, reflecting large capital awaiting entry.

Beyond internal factors, the Pinetree expert notes that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran also pressured market sentiment. Two US airstrikes on Iran within 48 hours collapsed a ceasefire agreement, nearly paralyzing the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices soaring mid-week.

Geopolitical hotspots remain the primary risk this week. "If the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices could surge to the 80 USD per barrel range, reigniting global inflation fears and triggering a sell-off wave across emerging markets like Vietnam", Phong stated.

Thien Viet Securities (TVS) shares this view, suggesting the VN-Index might retreat to the 1,800 - 1,810 point range. Widespread selling pressure and weakening liquidity limit the index's short-term recovery potential.

From a technical perspective, Tien Phong Securities (TPS) indicates that the VN-Index staying below its 20-session moving average (ma20) shows a continued short-term weakening trend. However, the medium- to long-term uptrend structure remains intact, as key support levels below hold.

With correction pressure showing no signs of abating, the VN-Index will likely continue testing its nearest support level around 1,808 points, which corresponds to the 100-session moving average (ma100). "The 1,808 point area is expected to be a crucial support threshold, determining the index's stabilization potential in upcoming trading sessions", TPS stated.

Given the potential for further decline, VCBS advises investors to temporarily reduce leverage to manage risk and restrict new buy positions. Traders should await a stable market accumulation zone, along with signs of a liquidity bottom and easing selling pressure, before re-entering.

Meanwhile, BVSC recommends investors gradually increase cash holdings to mitigate risk if negative scenarios unfold. Stockholders should consider early profit-taking to secure gains. The firm suggests investors select stocks expected to show positive Q2 results but have undergone deep price corrections for short-term trading.

Trong Hieu