The latest report from United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised Vietnam's 2026 growth forecast. This follows the General Statistics Office (GSO) announcement that the country's first-half GDP reached 8.18%, the highest in Southeast Asia and significantly exceeding the bank's initial expectations.
According to the Singaporean bank, this strong performance reflects broad-based growth across several key sectors including industry, construction, services, and agriculture. The manufacturing and processing industry continues to be a primary growth driver, largely due to increasing global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related products.
Concurrently, registered foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first six months reached USD 34.7 billion, marking a 61% increase. This indicates promising foreign capital disbursement in the coming period, reinforcing UOB's view that 2026 could become a record year for FDI attraction in Vietnam.
"Vietnam's economy has shown considerable resilience to the impacts of tensions in the Middle East, thereby creating a solid foundation for growth in the second half of 2026," the report stated.
UOB's current forecast is among the most optimistic from international organizations. On 8/7, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released an updated report, projecting Vietnam to be the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia this year, with a growth rate of 7.2%.
For 2026, Vietnam aims for GDP growth of 10% or more, alongside maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major economic balances. To achieve these goals, the Government has outlined a growth scenario of 11.9% for the final six months of the year.
Alongside the positive outlook, UOB cautioned close monitoring of the global trade cycle. Specifically, US Section 301 tariffs, expected to take effect from late July, could add pressure to global trade activities, potentially impacting Vietnam's growth momentum in the coming period.
In the foreign exchange market, the Vietnamese dong (VND) demonstrated "impressive resilience" in June, despite broad weakness across other Asian currencies. UOB maintains its view that the VND will remain relatively stable, with the USD/VND exchange rate potentially falling to 26,500 dong in QIII and 26,400 dong in QIV.
Vien Thong
