According to the Ministry of Health's Department of Population on 8/7, 13 of Vietnam's 34 provinces now have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. The five provinces with the lowest rates are Ho Chi Minh City, Tay Ninh, Can Tho, Ca Mau, and Vinh Long, ranging from 1.43 to 1.6 children per woman.

Following the mergers, Ho Chi Minh City, combining the former areas of Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Vung Tau, has the nation's lowest birth rate at 1.43. Tay Ninh (merging Long An and Tay Ninh) follows at 1.52, and Can Tho (merging Soc Trang, Hau Giang, and Can Tho) is at 1.55.

Hanoi is the only northern province with a birth rate below 2, at 1.86, a decrease of 0.02 compared to 2023. This marks the capital's lowest birth rate on record.

Three provinces have high birth rates (above 2.5). Dien Bien leads the nation at 2.6, followed by Tuyen Quang (merging Ha Giang and Tuyen Quang) at 2.55 and Lao Cai (merging Yen Bai and Lao Cai) at 2.5. These provinces also had high birth rates before the mergers.

The remaining 18 provinces have birth rates at or near replacement level, ranging from 2.1 to just under 2.5.

Birth rates of 34 provinces and cities after the mergers. Photo: *Cuc Thong ke* (*General Statistics Office*)

Vietnam's current national birth rate of 1.91 is among the five lowest in Southeast Asia. It is higher only than Brunei (1.8), Malaysia (1.6), Thailand, and Singapore (both 1.0), compared to the regional average of 2.0.

Experts attribute Vietnam's low birth rates to factors such as work pressure, financial difficulties, career prioritization, and changing social perceptions. Rural areas tend to have higher birth rates due to early marriage and traditional customs, especially in remote regions. However, a declining trend is also evident in these areas.

Low birth rates significantly impact demographics, shrinking the working-age population, accelerating aging, and negatively affecting population size. Experts warn of a potential "population collapse" that could paralyze the economy if timely measures are not taken.

Vietnam's population strategy for 2030 aims to maintain a replacement birth rate of 2.1 children per woman and a population of 104 million. The Ministry of Health has proposed measures to encourage having two children, including eliminating penalties for having a third child and encouraging marriage before 30 and having two children before 35.

Several provinces offer financial incentives. Ho Chi Minh City recently introduced a program providing 3 million VND to women who have two children before 35.

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