Man City's victory at Etihad on 19/4 gave them control in the title race. Pep Guardiola's team currently has 67 points, three less than Arsenal, and one match in hand. If they defeat Burnley in their early matchweek 34 fixture on 22/4, the Manchester club will claim the top spot.

Kai Havertz (right) celebrates a goal during Arsenal's 1-2 loss to Man City in matchweek 33 of the English Premier League at Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England on 19/4/2026. Photo: Arsenal FC

Before matchweek 33, Opta assessed Arsenal's chances of winning the title at 85,2%. Following their defeat at Etihad, this percentage decreased to 73%, but it still significantly surpasses Man City's 27% chance.

Opta provided these figures after running thousands of simulations of the remaining season's results to calculate probabilities. Team capabilities are assessed using the Opta power index. Arsenal maintains the top global rating, with Man City ranking third, behind Bayern.

According to Opta, Arsenal's advantage stems from a more favorable schedule in the final stage of the season. The Gunners' remaining fixtures include matches against Newcastle (home), Fulham (home), West Ham (away), Burnley (home), and Crystal Palace (away). These opponents are all from the lower half of the league table and lost to Arsenal in the first half of the English Premier League season.

In contrast, Man City will face Burnley (away), Everton (away), Brentford (home), Bournemouth (away), Aston Villa (home), and Crystal Palace (home) on an unannounced date. Matches against Everton, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa, clubs competing for European cup spots, are considered higher risk.

Even if both teams win all their remaining games, Arsenal could still emerge victorious due to goal difference, an advantage currently favoring the London club thanks to their easier schedule.

Former player Lauren, who won the unbeaten English Premier League title with Arsenal in the 2003-2004 season, also believes his former club will maintain their form to win the league.

Specifically, the former Cameroon defender predicts Arsenal will win against Newcastle 2-0, Fulham 3-1, West Ham 1-0, Burnley 2-0, and Crystal Palace 3-1, accumulating 85 points. Meanwhile, he predicts Man City will defeat Burnley 3-0, draw with Everton 1-1, beat Brentford 3-0, Bournemouth 2-1, Crystal Palace 2-1, and draw with Aston Villa 1-1, finishing with only 81 points.

Coach Roberto De Zerbi (black shirt) directs his team during Tottenham's 2-2 draw with Brighton in matchweek 33 of the English Premier League at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom on 18/4/2026. Photo: Guardian

Also, according to Opta's simulation, Tottenham's situation is becoming alarming. Before matchweek 33, the North London club faced a 49,1% risk of relegation. However, after their 2-2 draw with Brighton, this percentage sharply increased to 56,58%. With competitor Nottingham Forest crushing Burnley 4-1, pressure intensifies on coach Roberto De Zerbi's team.

In their five remaining rounds, Tottenham will play Wolves (away), Aston Villa (away), Leeds (home), Chelsea (away), and Everton (home). The two away matches against Aston Villa and Chelsea are expected to directly impact this season's relegation battle.

Hong Duy (according to Daily Mail)