Ahead of the 2026 World Cup draw on 5/12 in Washington D.C., Opta's supercomputer released its initial predictions for the expanded 48-team tournament. Spain, the current Euro champions, are tipped as favorites with a 17% chance of winning, significantly ahead of familiar contenders such as France, England, Argentina, and Portugal.

Forward Mikel Oyarzabal (number 21) celebrates a goal for Spain during a World Cup 2026 qualifier against Turkey at Cartuja Stadium, Seville, Spain, on the evening of 18/11/2025. Photo: Reuters

Forward Mikel Oyarzabal (number 21) celebrates a goal for Spain during a World Cup 2026 qualifier against Turkey at Cartuja Stadium, Seville, Spain, on the evening of 18/11/2025. Photo: Reuters

Spain enters the 2026 World Cup on a 31-match unbeaten streak in official competitions, surpassing the record set under Vicente del Bosque (2010-2013). Their ball-possession style, high pressing, and the emergence of a young generation have made Luis de la Fuente's squad the top contender for the title.

Lamine Yamal will turn 19 before the 2026 World Cup semifinals and is already considered a key player for Spain. The 18-year-old star inspired Spain to win Euro 2024, leading in chances created. Should Rodri, Pedri, and Gavi achieve peak fitness, Spain could repeat their 2008-2012 feat of winning consecutive Euro and World Cup titles.

Following Spain, France holds a 14,1% chance of winning the title in what will be Coach Didier Deschamps' final World Cup. He has managed "Les Bleus" for 14 years, leading them to the 2018 World Cup title and the 2022 final.

Kylian Mbappe will participate in the World Cup for the first time as captain, expected to reach historical milestones, such as approaching or surpassing Miroslav Klose's record of 16 goals. The French captain has scored 12 goals across two World Cups and needs five more to set a new record. France will also enter the World Cup with current Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele and a star-studded squad. N'Golo Kante's return could strengthen their midfield.

With an 11,8% chance of victory, England is rated third. Coach Thomas Tuchel took over after two Euro runner-up finishes under Gareth Southgate, guiding England to eight unbeaten qualifying matches without conceding a goal.

Argentina ranks fourth with an 8,7% chance of winning, largely due to Lionel Messi. Following their historic 2022 triumph, the 38-year-old superstar has continued his explosive performance in MLS with 35 goals and 21 assists this season. The team's few limitations include a recent lack of matches against European teams and Angel Di Maria's departure from the national squad.

Among the remaining contenders, Germany (7,1%) faces doubts after four consecutive tournaments without reaching the semifinals. Portugal (6,6%) places its hopes on superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, who is nearing 41. Supporting CR7 is a midfield of playmakers like Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva.

World Cup record-holder Brazil (5,6%) and the Netherlands (5,2%) complete the group of eight teams with over a 5% chance. For Brazil, Coach Carlo Ancelotti's biggest challenge is finding solutions for Vinicius Junior and considering Neymar's potential recall.

All other teams have less than a 2,5% chance of winning.

Opta's predictions are simulations made before the group stage draw, so results may change once the groups are determined.

The 2026 World Cup will take place from 11/6 to 19/7, featuring 104 matches across 16 stadiums in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Hoang An (according to Analyst)