Vietnamese forward Nguyen Thanh Nhan (white jersey) dribbles the ball during the two-one victory over Laos in their opening Group B match of the SEA Games 33 men's football, held at Rajamangala Stadium in Bangkok, Thailand on 3/12. *Photo: Duc Dong*

After two matches, Thailand leads Group A with three points, a goal difference of +5, and six goals scored. Timor Leste's corresponding figures are three points, -3, and four goals, while Singapore has zero points, -2, and one goal. In the final match on 11/12, Thailand will still top the group even if they lose by a three-goal margin to Singapore.

In Group B, Laos has been eliminated. Malaysia leads with three points, level with Vietnam, but ranks higher due to a superior goal difference (+3 compared to +1). In their final match, Vietnam must win to secure the top spot. If they draw, coach Kim Sang-sik's team will finish second with 4 points but will still advance, as Singapore (Group A), Indonesia, and Myanmar (Group C) can only reach a maximum of three points.

In Group C, the Philippines have completed their matches and are guaranteed to advance after winning two games. Indonesia and Myanmar must hope for a decisive result (win or loss) in the Vietnam versus Malaysia match to calculate their chances of progressing. Otherwise, the match will be a mere formality for the defending champions.

According to the SEA Games 33 technical handbook, there are three scenarios for the men's football semifinals. First, if hosts Thailand top Group A, they will face the best-performing second-place team from a different group, while the Group B winner plays the Group C winner. Second, if Thailand is the best second-place team, they will meet the Group B winner, with the Group A winner facing the Group C winner. The remaining scenario is if Thailand tops Group A and the best second-place team is also from Group A. In this case, the hosts will play the Group C winner, and the Group A runner-up will face the Group B winner.

The tie-breaking criteria for SEA Games 33 are, in order: points, overall goal difference, and overall goals scored. If two or more teams are level on these criteria, head-to-head goal difference will be considered. Finally, fair-play points (number of cards) and a draw will decide. If the two teams in question meet in the final group match, a penalty shootout will be used.

Considering all scenarios and the current standings, Thailand is almost certain to top Group A. They will face Vietnam if coach Kim Sang-sik's team draws with Malaysia and finishes second in Group B.

Since rejoining regional competitions in 1991, Vietnam has emerged as Thailand's biggest rival across all levels of Southeast Asian football. However, despite numerous victories against this opponent at the national team level, Vietnam has only tasted victory one time against Thailand in the SEA Games arena, with a 1-0 win at the home games in 2021. In the 12 previous encounters, Vietnam's best result was four draws, occurring in the 1999, 2003, 2009, and 2019 tournaments.

The men's football semifinals will take place on 15/12, with the final three days later. All matches will be held at Rajamangala Stadium in Bangkok.

Hieu Luong