Football Predictions AI, a website specializing in football forecasts using artificial intelligence algorithms, strongly favors a Vietnam victory as they visit Thailand at Rajamangala Stadium at 8 PM on 22/8. The probability of Vietnam winning or drawing is as high as 74%, with a 44% chance of a win.

Gustavsson's run into the penalty area during the second leg of the ASEAN Cup 2024 final between Thailand and Vietnam at Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand, on the evening of 5/1/2024. Photo: Hieu Luong

The prediction system suggests that both teams will not score, while also selecting a total of over 2,5 goals. Combining these selections, Football Predictions AI projects a 3-0 scoreline in favor of Vietnam.

This prediction initially appears surprising, as Vietnam is playing away against their biggest regional rival. Thailand has the richest tradition in the tournament, having won it seven times. However, the algorithm's selections are not contradictory. A 0-3 score involves three goals, meeting the condition of over 2,5 goals. Thailand not scoring aligns with the prediction that both teams will not score. Additionally, Vietnam winning satisfies all the chosen criteria.

The difference lies in the risk level of each forecast. The probability of Vietnam not losing is the most likely outcome. Vietnam's chances of winning are lower, while 0-3 is a much more specific prediction. Therefore, this algorithm highly values Vietnam's chances of winning, and 0-3 is a scenario chosen by the algorithm, not guaranteed to occur.

This prediction website, registered in Portugal, does not disclose the specific mathematical formula, the weight of each variable, or the actual probability of a 0-3 match outcome. The site only describes this as a result generated by an "AI algorithm." In Vietnam's 3-0 victory over Indonesia in Bogor during the group stage, this algorithm predicted a 4-0 score for the away team. Before that match, there was much debate surrounding this prediction, as Indonesia was in strong form at the time, while Vietnam caused frustration by drawing 0-0 with Singapore at home in My Dinh.

However, the displayed data indicates that the system uses extensive statistics on recent form, home and away performance, head-to-head history, and scoring and conceding ability.

In their five recent matches, the Thailand national team won four and lost one, scoring nine goals and conceding three. The home team scored in all five matches and kept three clean sheets. The Vietnam national team has an even better record, remaining undefeated in all five recent matches, with four wins and one draw. The team scored 10 goals and conceded only one.

A more notable difference appears in away performance. Vietnam won all five of their recent away matches, scoring a total of 15 goals and conceding none. This is a particularly impressive figure before the team plays in Bangkok.

Conversely, Thailand still boasts good home form but recently suffered a shock 1-2 defeat to Singapore at Rajamangala in the second leg of the semifinals. Previously, they beat Malaysia 2-0 at home, defeated Myanmar 2-0, and won 1-0 against the Philippines away. These data help explain why the algorithm leans towards Vietnam.

Hoang Duc dribbling in the second leg of the ASEAN Cup 2024 final. Photo: Giang Huy

This algorithm is not alone; some other prediction websites also rate Vietnam higher than Thailand, though not all systems predict a wide margin victory.

The French news site WinComparator estimates Vietnam's chances of winning at 53%. This site also forecasts a 59% chance of the match having over 2,5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams not scoring.

This site also shares three similarities with the AI algorithm: Vietnam is rated higher, there is a possibility of at least three goals in the match, and Thailand is at risk of not scoring. However, this site does not predict a 0-3 score.

Live Tips Portal, registered in Malta, also picks Vietnam to win. This site bases its prediction on recent form, favoring the away team, and believes Vietnam has a sufficiently solid defense to limit Thailand's scoring potential.

Vietnam has won seven and drawn one of their eight recent matches, scoring 24 goals and conceding only one. Meanwhile, Thailand has won five, drawn two, and lost one, scoring 16 goals and conceding five.

This site also recalls Vietnam's 3-2 victory over Thailand in their latest encounter, the second leg of the ASEAN Cup 2024 final, and notes that Vietnam has won both recent head-to-head matches.

However, the Estonian news site Score24 offers a more cautious perspective. This site suggests Vietnam is rated slightly better in the first leg but predicts a 1-1 draw. Thailand has the home advantage and has scored in 17 consecutive tournament matches, as well as 25 out of 26 recent official matches.

They also point out Vietnam's disadvantages, as the away team had one less day of rest than Thailand and had to travel to Bangkok. This is a significant factor because both teams recently played semifinals and are competing at a high intensity.

Another statistic also makes the scenario of Vietnam winning 3-0 less likely: in the eight recent times the national team visited Thailand, the away team tended to score no more than one goal.

Vietnam is on a 24-match unbeaten streak across all competitions and recently defeated Malaysia 2-0 in the second leg of the semifinals, with a 4-0 aggregate score. Meanwhile, Thailand recently suffered a home defeat but had a streak of positive results before that.

Hoang An compiled