Nguyen Dinh Bac shields the ball during the Vietnam national team's 2-0 win over Malaysia in the second leg of the ASEAN Cup 2026 semifinals, on the evening of 19/8 at My Dinh Stadium, Ha Noi. Photo: Duc Dong

Nguyen Xuan Son's brace at My Dinh Stadium secured the team's third consecutive ASEAN Cup final appearance against Thailand. The win also earned the team an additional 11 Elo points, boosting them four places to 92nd globally. Conversely, Malaysia lost 11 Elo points, dropping to 149th.

With a current Elo rating of 1,432, Vietnam has surpassed China (1,424) for the first time since the Elo system was adopted for football. China now sits at 95th, while Thailand is 104th with a rating of 1,391. Kim Sang-sik's squad also holds the top one spot in Southeast Asia.

Since the start of ASEAN Cup 2026, the national team has climbed 25 spots. Victories against Timor Leste and Cambodia did not significantly improve their ranking due to the large skill disparity. However, a 3-0 win over Indonesia saw Vietnam rise 19 places, and the two wins against Malaysia contributed an additional 11 places.

The football Elo rankings are based on the Elo system developed by Doctor Arpad Elo, originally used by the International Chess Federation (FIDE) to rank chess players. Football Elo modifies this formula to suit the sport's specific characteristics, including match type, home-field advantage, and goal difference.

Each match is assigned a significance coefficient (K), ranging from 20 for friendlies to 60 for World Cup finals. Matches in continental championships like the Asian Cup have a coefficient of 50. The ASEAN Cup 2026 has a coefficient of 30, higher than friendly matches (coefficient of 20). This differs from the FIFA rankings, where a friendly match during FIFA Days has a coefficient of 10, while the ASEAN Cup 2026, not being part of FIFA Days, only has a coefficient of 5.

Before each match, the system predicts the winning probability for both teams based on their Elo difference. The home team receives an additional advantage equivalent to 100 Elo points. After the match, scores change according to the actual result: a win earns one point, a draw 0,5 points, and a loss 0 points. A team that defeats a stronger opponent than expected gains more Elo points, while a highly-rated team that fails to win loses more. A victory by two or more goals also increases Elo fluctuations.

A team's Elo rating typically reflects its strength accurately after about 30 matches; teams with fewer matches may still experience significant fluctuations. This system provides an alternative measure of team strength correlation, but it is not used for seeding.

In the FIFA rankings, the Vietnam national team also rose one spot to 98th globally. Thailand is currently 91st, and China 92nd. The FIFA rankings are used for seeding teams in tournaments like the Asian Cup or World Cup qualifiers.

Vietnam will face Thailand in the ASEAN Cup 2026 final, with the first leg at Rajamangala on the evening of 22/8 and the second leg at My Dinh on the evening of 26/8.

Xuan Binh