In an interview with Axios on 11/3, President Donald Trump stated that "there's virtually nothing left to target" in Iran. "There are just a few odds and ends. Whenever I want it to end, it will end," he said.

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), the body responsible for US military operations in the Middle East, announced on the same day that Washington is "continuing to deliver destructive blows" to the adversary. "US combat power is increasing, while Iran’s power is declining," he noted.

CENTCOM had previously reported sinking dozens of Iranian naval vessels, while Trump claimed that 80% of Iran’s missile launch capability had been eliminated. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also stated that they had destroyed more than 300 enemy missile launchers since the conflict began.

An Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) carrier was attacked in a video released on 5/3. Video: CENTCOM

Beyond missile launchers, Israel and the US have also targeted Iranian air defense systems to gain air superiority.

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced on 4/3 that US forces would transition from long-range munitions to closer-range weapons, such as JDAM bombs or AGM-114 Hellfire missiles. This information suggests the US military believes it has achieved air superiority, at least in some areas of Iran, allowing aircraft to penetrate deeper than in the early stages of the conflict.

However, Tyler Rogoway, a commentator for the military specialized publication War Zone, warned that US forces would still face risks operating deep within Iranian territory.

"This is particularly true when the adversary still possesses mobile air defense systems, capable of appearing almost anywhere and giving aircrews very little reaction time. These systems can be very well concealed and will continue to be present on the battlefield long after fixed air defense positions are completely destroyed," Rogoway stated.

The US and Israel have not lost manned combat aircraft over Iran, but Iranian air defense units have shot down at least 11 US MQ-9 Reaper armed UAVs and an unspecified number of Hermes 900 aircraft, one of the most modern UAV types in Israel’s arsenal.

General Caine confirmed early this week that ballistic missile attacks from Iran had decreased by about 90% compared to the initial phase of the operation, while the number of suicide UAV attacks had dropped by 83%.

Missiles launched by Iran during the thu 37 attack on the night of 10/3. Video: Sepah News

Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University in the US, warned that Iran’s initial attacks might have used older ballistic missiles to stretch enemy air defenses, forcing the US-Israel and their allies to expend large quantities of expensive missiles in response. More modern weapons could be deployed once vulnerabilities appear in the US and allied defense networks.

According to closed-door meetings between defense officials and the US Congress last week, Iran might still retain up to 50% of its missile arsenal and launchers hidden in underground bunkers.

Hai senior US officials told the New York Times that Iran "is storing many missiles to attack critical targets like US radar," while admitting that the Pentagon "does not have full knowledge" of the enemy’s missile launch sites.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on 9/3 that it would only use missiles with warheads weighing over mot ton, indicating that they would deploy powerful medium-range ballistic missiles like the Shahab-3 and Khorramshahr, which are capable of carrying 1-2 ton warheads. Additionally, Tehran possesses Hoveyzeh cruise missiles that can carry warheads weighing up to 2,4 tons.

Just two days later, the IRGC announced it had conducted its thu 37 strike as part of its retaliation campaign against the US-Israel. The IRGC stated this was the "most powerful and intense attack" since the start of hostilities, with missiles fired continuously for more than ba hours, marking the largest use of heavy Khorramshahr-class ballistic missiles to date.

"They save their most powerful weapons for later stages of the conflict, when the defensive resources of the involved nations have significantly diminished, which is a rational tactic," commented Sinan Ulgen, director of the Edam research institute based in Turkey.

Shahed-136 UAVs at a military parade in Tehran, Iran in 2024. Photo: AFP

"Beyond missiles, Iran also has a backup option in its arsenal of suicide UAVs. While the potential for large-scale damage might decrease, UAVs will allow Tehran to sustain relentless attacks," noted Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

Compared to missiles, suicide UAVs are much cheaper and easier to produce. The Financial Times cited Israeli intelligence officials as saying that Iran appears to have more than 10.000 Shahed UAVs in its inventory, meaning Tehran could continue attacks at the current intensity for another hai-ba weeks.

Western military analysts have provided higher figures. Robert Tollast, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK, estimated Tehran’s Shahed UAV inventory to be in the tens of nghin, based on the production rate of the Geran variant in Russia and the fact that suicide UAVs have long played a critical role in Iran’s deterrence capabilities.

Although they do not carry large warheads or possess the high speed of ballistic missiles, UAVs still pose a significant challenge to the air defense networks of the US and Gulf countries.

They typically fly low and slow, making them harder for air defense systems to detect. Countering UAVs is also a challenging economic problem, as US and allied air defense systems in the Middle East often use missiles costing up to millions of USD, compared to about 35.000 USD per Shahed-class unit.

An Iranian suicide UAV struck a building housing a US operations center in Kuwait on 1/3, killing 6 servicemen. The AN/FPS-132 early warning radar, valued at over mot billion USD and located in Qatar, along with the satellite communication antenna at the US Naval Forces Central Command headquarters in Bahrain, were also among the targets hit by Iranian UAVs.

Locations attacked during the conflict in the Middle East. Click on the image for details.

In addition to military targets, Iranian UAVs have also hit numerous high-rise buildings and oil facilities in several Middle Eastern countries, impacting regional energy exports. Tehran appears to be expanding its attack range to inflict greater economic damage on Washington and its allies, thereby pressuring the US to halt its offensive operations.

Suicide UAVs could also help Iran realize its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz without using missiles, as cargo ships have almost no means to counter these weapons.

Pham Giang (According to WSJ, Financial Times, War Zone)