After nearly two weeks of fighting, the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran has spread, affecting at least 12 countries in the Middle East. This has triggered economic and energy shocks globally. Developments indicate that neither side has achieved its strategic goals, and both have vowed to continue the confrontation.

The US and Israel launched their operation on 28/2, expecting to quickly weaken the Iranian government. However, Tehran's fierce response and the resulting complications have exposed numerous shortcomings in Washington's planning.

US President Donald Trump at the White House on 6/3. Photo: AFP

On 18/2, as US President Donald Trump weighed whether to launch an operation against Iran, Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated in an interview that he was not concerned about the conflict disrupting oil supplies from the Middle East or destabilizing energy markets.

When the US and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran in 6/2025, Wright also asserted that the market experienced minimal disruption, with "oil prices only rising briefly before falling again." Several other presidential advisors shared Wright's view, dismissing warnings that Iran might blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil output passes.

However, contrary to US government calculations, Iran viewed the threat from the US and Israel as existential this time. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) immediately declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, vowing to attack any vessel attempting to pass.

To date, at least 6 cargo ships have been attacked in the strait. Shipping activities in the Gulf have stalled, oil prices have surged, and the Trump administration has had to scramble to curb gasoline prices in the US.

The international energy market developments and Iran's strong retaliation appeared to be unforeseen by the Trump administration. Beyond Israeli territory, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at Arab nations hosting US forces, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan.

President Trump on 2/3 described Iran's attacks on Arab countries as his "biggest surprise." He stated that Middle Eastern nations previously believed the US would control the situation well and that they would not play a major role in the conflict. "But now they are fighting back fiercely as Iran attacks them," he said.

US officials have also had to constantly adjust numerous plans to address the urgent situation. The US Department of State increased resources to evacuate citizens stranded in the Middle East, while the Pentagon rushed to deploy troops to gather intelligence for operations.

After Trump administration officials held a closed briefing with lawmakers on 10/3, Democratic Senator Christopher Murphy wrote on X that the White House had no plan to clear the Strait of Hormuz and "did not know how to safely reopen this route."

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged the same day that Iran's response caught the Pentagon off guard but emphasized that Tehran's actions would backfire.

Sources indicate that Trump had hoped the preemptive strike on 28/2, which targeted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking Iranian officials, would collapse the regime or bring a candidate willing to cooperate with Washington to power.

Neither scenario has materialized. Despite warnings from Trump, Iranian officials elected Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who holds even more hardline views than his father, as his successor. No internal movement challenging the government emerged in Iran. Furthermore, despite continuous airstrikes, Iran has maintained its ability to launch retaliatory missiles and UAVs.

"You will not achieve a decisive victory in a war with Iran, given the country's territorial size, military capabilities, and institutional structure," Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told WSJ.

"Iran's focus now is to ensure that everything Trump hears and sees is about how much this war harms the US economy and how American people are affected. The longer this war of attrition lasts, the more Iran believes it can continue to force the US to pay that price," according to Geranmayeh.

Within the US government, some officials are growing pessimistic about the White House's lack of a clear strategy to end the conflict. However, they have not expressed this directly to President Trump, as he continues to declare the operation a complete success.

Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, asserted that the US government "had a solid plan" before the war broke out, also pledging that oil prices would decrease once the conflict concluded. However, Trump has never specified the concrete plan for Iran or how long the war would last.

Series of reciprocal strikes in the Iran conflict. Click to see details

Beyond the US, observers suggest that Iran's strategy in the conflict also shows limitations.

In addition to US and Israeli military targets, Iran has retaliated against economic infrastructure such as airports, seaports, energy facilities, and data centers in Gulf countries. This strategy appears designed to pressure Arab nations, compelling them to urge Washington for a ceasefire on terms set by Tehran.

But this scenario has not occurred. Instead of applying pressure, many Gulf nations have bolstered their defenses and chosen to continue coordinating with the US. Some experts warn that Tehran's broad attack strategy could lead it to "make more enemies."

"Iran is engaged in a dangerous 'dance of death,' targeting almost all parties. They have struck at the backbone of the global economy," said political analyst Salman al-Ansari from Saudi Arabia.

"Saudi Arabia is making every effort to de-escalate tensions, but if forced to respond, they will not act with restraint; they will step to the front lines to deal with Iran. Restraint does not mean weakness," al-Ansari continued.

By Nhu Tam (According to AFP, Reuters, WSJ)