US media on 3/3 cited an internal assessment indicating that Qatar's patriot air defense missile reserves could be depleted within 4 days if current firing rates continue.

Sources familiar with the matter stated that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is requesting allied assistance for defense against mid-range threats, while Qatar is asking for support in intercepting unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), considering them a greater threat than missiles from Iran.

Just three days after erupting, the Middle East conflict has transformed into a war of attrition, where the outcome depends on which side exhausts its ammunition first.

Moment Iranian missiles breached Israeli air defense. Video: Al Jazeera

"The US has intercepted hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting our forces, as well as partners and regional stability," stated Dan Caine, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, on 2/3.

Successful interceptions necessitate the consumption of high-tech, costly, and already scarce missiles. "The US and its partners face the risk of depleting their air defense ammunition before Iran runs out of missiles, though this is far from certain," warned Kelly Grieco, an expert at the Stimson Center research institute.

Before the conflict erupted, Israeli intelligence estimated Tehran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles, indicating this number exceeds the total interceptors of Washington and Tel Aviv combined. "The US and Israel are seeking to destroy Iran's launchers. This is a race between US and Israeli attacks and Iranian ballistic missile launchers," said Ms. Grieco.

Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle attacks also pressure the defense systems of the US and its allies.

The UAE reported that its patriot systems are highly effective in intercepting Shahed-136 suicide unmanned aerial vehicles. However, using a missile costing over 4 million USD to stop a UAV estimated at 20,000-30,000 USD highlights a problem that has plagued Western military planners since the start of the Ukraine conflict: inexpensive weapons can deplete resources needed for more complex threats.

"Iran and the US could both deplete their weapons within days or weeks. Whichever side endures longer will gain a significant advantage," expert Grieco stated.

Patriot missile turning, crashing to the ground while intercepting Iranian attack. Video: Reuters, X/visegrad24

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei previously warned that US operations would lead to a larger conflict, drawing the entire Middle East into a spiral of conflict.

Iran has fired over 1,200 missiles and suicide unmanned aerial vehicles since the conflict erupted on 28/2, mostly Shahed-136 types. This indicates they are retaining more modern, powerful weapons for use in a prolonged conflict.

The US and its allies and partners in the region primarily use patriot air defense systems with PAC-3 interceptors. The Pentagon has pushed for increased production, but manufacturer Lockheed Martin stated that only 600 PAC-3 interceptors will be delivered in 2025.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE also use the US terminal high altitude area defense (THAAD) system to intercept more advanced ballistic missiles. However, THAAD cannot counter conventional targets, and its missiles are significantly more expensive than patriot missiles, costing up to 12 million USD each.

The US and Middle Eastern nations may have used a large number of patriot missiles to intercept Iranian targets since 28/2. If Iran continues its current attack intensity, PAC-3 missile stockpiles in the Middle East could reach dangerously low levels within days.

Iranian missile striking Tel Aviv, Israel on 28/2. *Reuters*

Meanwhile, Washington would struggle to transfer enough patriot interceptors to the Middle East to sustain operations for 4 to 5 weeks, as estimated by President Donald Trump. This could lead to some batteries facing an "empty launcher" situation, with no missiles left to fight, according to sources familiar with the matter.

"A war of attrition makes practical sense from Iran's perspective. They calculate that the defending side will run out of interceptor missiles, and the will of the Gulf states will waver, pressuring the US and Israel to halt operations before Iran depletes its missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles," Ms. Grieco commented.

Nguyen Tien (According to AFP, AP, Reuters)